Abstract This research investigates the linear and non-linear effects of information and communication technology (ICT) diffusion on financial development for 81 countries over the period 1990–2015 by employing the generalized-momentum method (GMM) and panel smooth transition regression (PSTR). Some main conclusions are presented as follows. First, comparing the different effects of ICT on financial development between the high-income group and the middle- & low-income group, telephone and Internet positively influences both groups’ financial development, whereas mobile cellular causes a negative effect in high-income countries, but a positive effect in middle- & low-income countries. Second, the growth of the Internet and telephones raises the financial development in all regions, while mobile cellular growth positively affects financial development only in Africa. Finally, strong evidence appears that the PSTR models capture the smooth non-linear effects of ICT diffusion on financial development, in which the effect of ICT diffusion on financial development is positive in the lower level of ICT diffusion, but turns negative in the higher level of ICT diffusion.

中文翻译：

---

ICT 传播与金融发展之间的非线性关系

摘要 本研究采用广义动量法 (GMM) 和面板平滑过渡回归 (PSTR) 研究了 1990-2015 年间 81 个国家的信息和通信技术 (ICT) 扩散对金融发展的线性和非线性影响。 . 一些主要结论如下。首先，比较高收入群体和中低收入群体之间ICT对金融发展的不同影响，电话和互联网对两个群体的金融发展产生积极影响，而移动蜂窝对高收入国家产生负面影响，但对中低收入国家有积极影响。第二，互联网和电话的发展带动了各地区的金融发展，而移动蜂窝增长仅对非洲的金融发展产生积极影响。最后，强有力的证据表明，PSTR 模型捕捉到了 ICT 扩散对金融发展的平滑非线性影响，其中 ICT 扩散对金融发展的影响在 ICT 扩散的较低水平为正，但在较高水平变为负ICT 的传播。