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Economic growth, transport accessibility and regional equity impacts of high-speed railways in Italy: ten years ex post evaluation and future perspectives.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2020.07.008
Ennio Cascetta 1 , Armando Cartenì 2 , Ilaria Henke 1 , Francesca Pagliara 1
Affiliation  

The deployment of HSR services in the recent decades has been, arguably, the most significant innovation for intercity travel around the globe. HSR has brought impacts which have been widely studied in different countries in relation to the different socioeconomic, territorial and transport characteristics.

This paper analyses the economic growth, the transport accessibility and the social impacts observed in Italy after ten years of HSR operation, as well as the estimated impacts of the system completion. The Italian case study is of particular interest since along the 1,467 km of new high speed line (300 km/h), a combination of major cities distances and a unique HSR competitive market, producing prices reductions and more daily trains, brought a 200% increase of HSR demand (from 15 to 45 millions of passengers/year). Estimations results show that, on average, HSR in Italy contributed to a significant increase in transport accessibility (+32%) for the zones along the HSR network, while only marginal for the others (+6%). Impacts on the economic growth show that HSR has contributed to an extra growth of per capita GDP of + 2.6% in 10 years and would have contributed to a further increase of 3.6% if the final project scenario (HSR_N) would had been completed by 2018. Regional (horizontal) equity impacts were evaluated in terms of the Gini indexes variations with respect to the distribution of the transport accessibility. It results that HSR in Italy has decreased equity in terms of users’ travel time accessibility of 11%, increasing the differences between the zones served by HSR and those not. If the HSR_N scenario would have been completed equity indices would have increased of 29% with respect to the pre-HSR 2008 scenario, thus reducing regional inequalities in the country.

Results show that the HSR project was a country-level “game changer” in Italy, suggesting that the wider economic benefits, the assumptions on market regulation, the effects on regional disparities and the compensatory measures should be included in the ex ante and ex post evaluation of similar projects.



中文翻译:

意大利高速铁路的经济增长,交通便利性和区域公平影响:事后评估和未来展望十年。

可以说,近几十年来,高铁服务的部署一直是全球城际旅行最重要的创新。高铁带来的影响已在不同国家被广泛研究,涉及不同的社会经济,领土和交通特征。

本文分析了高铁运营十年后在意大利观察到的经济增长,交通便利性和社会影响,以及系统完工的估计影响。意大利的案例研究特别受关注,因为沿着1467公里的新高速线(300公里/小时),主要城市的距离和独特的高铁竞争市场相结合,降低了价格,增加了每日火车,使200%高铁需求的增长(从每年15到4,500万人次)。估计结果表明,平均而言,意大利的高铁对高铁网络沿线区域的交通可及性(+ 32%)做出了显着贡献,而其他区域仅微不足道(+ 6%)。对经济增长的影响表明,高铁为人均GDP的+2增长做出了贡献。如果最终项目方案(HSR_N)到2018年完成,则在10年内增长6%,并可能进一步推动3.6%的增长。根据基尼系数的变化评估区域(水平)股权影响。交通可达性的分布。结果表明,意大利的高铁网减少了11%的用户出行时间可访问性,增加了高铁服务区域与非高铁服务区域之间的差异。如果HSR_N方案能够完成,那么与2008年HSR之前的方案相比,股指将增加29%,从而减少该国的地区不平等现象。区域(水平)公平影响的评估依据是吉尼指数在交通可及性分布方面的变化。结果表明,意大利的高铁网减少了11%的用户出行时间可访问性,增加了高铁服务区域与非高铁服务区域之间的差异。如果HSR_N方案能够完成,那么与2008年HSR之前的方案相比,股指将增加29%,从而减少该国的地区不平等现象。区域(水平)公平影响的评估依据是吉尼指数在交通可及性分布方面的变化。结果表明,意大利的高铁网减少了11%的用户出行时间可访问性,增加了高铁服务区域与非高铁服务区域之间的差异。如果HSR_N方案能够完成,那么与2008年HSR之前的方案相比,股指将增加29%,从而减少该国的地区不平等现象。

结果表明,高铁项目是意大利的国家级“游戏规则改变者”,这表明事前和事后都应包括更广泛的经济利益,市场监管假设,对地区差异的影响以及补偿措施。评估类似项目。

更新日期:2020-08-08
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