We use a dynamic global forest model to examine how U.S. tax reform could influence forest stocks and carbon sequestration. Scenario analysis estimates several impacts from adjusting current policies that affect timberland investment, area, harvests, and carbon. First, increases in tax rates faced by timberland owners cause timber assets to be revalued downward even though the physical forest is initially unchanged, resulting in substantial declines in both regeneration and management. Second, timber stocks fall over time, reflecting a decrease in investment. Third, tax revenues could increase by nearly $3.4 billion/yr compared to baseline, but at the expense of increasing trade deficits by up to $3.3 billion/yr. Fourth, timberland area could decrease by 12 million hectares. Last, cumulative carbon sequestration over the next 50 years could be reduced by more than 3 billion tCO2e, −22% from the current policy baseline if forestland tax incentives are removed. Fifth, maintaining the existing tax policies in perpetuity incentivizes carbon sequestration levels equivalent to imposing a price of $70/tCO2e on the forest sector, highlighting the ecosystem service benefits of maintaining current tax policy. Finally, we estimate that current US forest tax policy provides about $8 billion/yr in climate change mitigation benefits by 2050.

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美国森林税收政策的碳和市场效应


我们使用动态全球森林模型来研究美国税收改革如何影响森林储量和碳固存。情景分析估计了调整当前影响林地投资、面积、收成和碳的政策所产生的一些影响。首先，林地所有者面临的税率增加导致木材资产被重估，尽管物理森林最初没有变化，导致再生和管理大幅下降。其次，木材库存随着时间的推移而下降，反映出投资的减少。第三，与基线相比，税收收入每年可能增加近 34 亿美元，但代价是贸易赤字每年增加高达 33 亿美元。第四，林地面积可能减少1200万公顷。最后，如果取消林地税收激励措施，未来 50 年的累计碳封存量可能会减少超过 30 亿吨二氧化碳当量，比当前政策基准减少 -22%。第五，永久维持现有税收政策可以激励碳封存水平，相当于对森林部门征收 70 美元/吨二氧化碳当量的价格，突出了维持现行税收政策的生态系统服务效益。最后，我们估计，到 2050 年，美国现行森林税政策每年可带来约 80 亿美元的气候变化缓解效益。