Long transients may be common in ecological dynamics, but the implications such dynamics have for ecological management have not been fully explored. Long transient periods can easily be mistaken for stable state dynamics, but may require dramatically different management policies. Here, I explore the optimal management of stochastic ecological systems that may contain either a tipping point or a ghost attractor: an important mechanism which can give rise to long transients. I consider three approaches of increasing sophistication: (1) dynamic management under a fixed model, (2) management that accounts for uncertainty over possible models, and (3) adaptive management that actively learns the correct model over the management process. This analysis confirms the prediction that long transients can create considerable uncertainty and give rise to very different optimal management policies, and also illustrates that dynamic management that can either plan for this uncertainty or actively learn to decrease the uncertainty can promote successful management of long transients.

长瞬态现象在生态动力学中可能很常见，但尚未充分探讨这种动力学对生态管理的影响。长时间的过渡很容易被误认为是稳定的状态，但可能需要截然不同的管理策略。在这里，我探讨了可能包含临界点或幽灵吸引子的随机生态系统的最佳管理：这是可能引起长时间瞬变的重要机制。我考虑了三种提高复杂性的方法：（1）在固定模型下进行动态管理；（2）考虑可能模型不确定性的管理；（3）在管理过程中主动学习正确模型的自适应管理。