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Cormack–Jolly–Seber models: time and age perspectives
Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s00477-020-01840-x
Blanca Sarzo , David Conesa , Ruth King

Survival is a key demographic characteristic in many areas including both human demography and population ecology. However, it is often the case that data collection protocols are different in these areas, resulting in different models and methods of analysis. This paper is motivated for the different emphasis given to the elicitation of the temporal scale (and consequently, on the origin time) in ecological and medical survival studies. Specifically, in medical studies, the origin time is often determined in advance with individuals followed over a period of time at regular (or irregular) intervals, thus focusing on time within study (or age to a given reference point). However, in ecological capture–recapture studies, the capture occasions are typically fixed in advance, with an imperfect detection process observing individuals at these times. Moreover, the temporal scale is often primarily specified at the capture occasion level. In this work we focus on an ecological capture–recapture study related to guillemots and compare and contrast two different temporal scales: (1) calendar (or capture occasion); and (2) age (or time within study), in terms of the way the data may be represented and in relation to the ecological Cormack–Jolly–Seber-type model. The different temporal scales provides insights into the different underlying structures, which can then be combined into a joint (calendar and age) dependence model.



中文翻译:

Cormack–Jolly–Seber模型:时间和年龄的观点

生存是许多领域的关键人口统计学特征,包括人口统计和人口生态学。但是,通常情况下,这些区域的数据收集协议不同,导致分析模型和方法不同。本文旨在激发生态和医学生存研究中对时间尺度(因此,对起源时间)的启发的不同重视。具体而言,在医学研究中,通常是预先确定个体的起源时间,然后在一定时间(或不规则)的时间间隔内跟踪个体,因此着重研究的时间(或到达给定参考点的年龄)。但是,在生态捕获-捕获研究中,捕获时机通常是预先确定的,并且不完善的检测过程会在此时观察个体。此外,时间尺度通常主要在捕获时机级别上指定。在这项工作中,我们专注于与海雀科目的生态捕获-捕获研究,并比较和对比两个不同的时间尺度:(1)日历(或捕获时机);(2)年龄(或研究时间),根据表示数据的方式以及与生态Cormack-Jolly-Seber型模型有关。不同的时间尺度可以洞悉不同的基础结构,然后可以将其组合为联合(日历和年龄)依赖模型。(2)年龄(或研究时间),根据表示数据的方式以及与生态Cormack-Jolly-Seber型模型有关。不同的时间尺度可以洞悉不同的基础结构,然后可以将其组合为联合(日历和年龄)依赖模型。(2)年龄(或研究时间),根据表示数据的方式以及与生态Cormack-Jolly-Seber型模型有关。不同的时间尺度可以洞悉不同的基础结构,然后可以将其组合为联合(日历和年龄)依赖模型。

更新日期:2020-08-08
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