Climate models indicate that increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHG), mainly CO₂, will alter climate by increasing temperatures and changing rainfall patterns. Considering that potato crop stands out as the most important non-grain crop in the world, it is imperative to understand how climate change will impact this crop and how it will affect global food security. In this sense, crop simulation models are useful tools to estimate crop growth, development and yield in response to climatic conditions, soils, genotype and crop management. Among the several potato crop simulation models, DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato is the main one and widely used around the world. The aim of this study was to validate this model for Brazilian conditions and used it to simulate the impacts of projected climate change on potato crop in the main Brazilian producing regions, for different growing seasons, considering an ensemble of different general circulation models, projected for 2040–2069 and 2070–2099 periods, under two GHG Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results showed that Brazil will have warmer climate with wetter conditions in the south and less rainfall in the north, which will impact potato crop in different ways, depending on the producing region and growing season. In Southern Brazil, future climate will benefit potato yield, mainly during the 3rd growing season. On the other hand, locations with warmer and drier climates will have lower potato yields in relation to the present, mostly during the 1st growing season, when extremely high temperatures and water deficit will limit plants’ growth. These impacts will be less expressive in the most optimist scenario (RCP4.5), while more intense yield losses are expected under the RCP8.5 in the end of the century.

气候模型表明，大气中温室气体（GHG）的浓度不断增加，主要是CO ₂会通过升高温度和改变降雨方式来改变气候。考虑到马铃薯作物是世界上最重要的非谷物作物，因此必须了解气候变化将如何影响该作物以及它将如何影响全球粮食安全。从这个意义上讲，作物模拟模型是估算作物生长，发育和单产的有用工具，以适应气候条件，土壤，基因型和作物管理。在几种马铃薯作物模拟模型中，DSSAT-SUBSTOR-Potato是主要模型，并且在世界范围内广泛使用。这项研究的目的是针对巴西的条件验证此模型，并将其用于模拟气候变化对巴西主要生产地区不同生长季节的马铃薯作物造成的影响，考虑到在两种温室气体代表浓度路径（RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下，预计在2040-2069年和2070-2099年期间使用不同的一般循环模型的集合。结果表明，巴西气候变暖，南部潮湿，北部降雨较少，这将根据生产地区和生长季节以不同方式影响马铃薯作物。在巴西南部，未来的气候将有利于马铃薯产量，主要是在第三个生长季节。另一方面，相对于目前而言，气候温暖干燥的地区的马铃薯单产较低，主要是在第一个生长季节，那时极端高温和缺水会限制植物的生长。在最乐观的情况下（RCP4.5），这些影响将不太明显，