Purpose

Stable approach concept has great importance for the safe operation of an airline during the approach and landing phases. The purpose of this study is to analyse the unstabilized approaches with bow-tie method and determine the threats that may cause risk in an unstable approach.

Design/methodology/approach

In this study, risk assessment of the unstabilized approaches is carried out by using fuzzy bow-tie method and Bayesian networks. Bow-tie method is the combination of event tree analysis and fault tree analysis. Bayesian network is used in the analysis to see interrelationship of basic and intermediate events as well as to update posterior probabilities. Finally, analysis results are verified by the safety performance indicator values.

Findings

In this study, the probabilistic values of the numerical model presented by the risk assessment system for risks were calculated using the fuzzy bow-tie method. Thus, the risk assessment system has been transformed into a structure that can be expressed in a probabilistic manner, and the relationship of the risks within the system has been examined and the effect of a possible change on the risk value has been found to be prevalent.

Originality/value

The bow-tie model is widely applied to assess the risks in aviation. Obtaining prior probabilities is not always possible in the risk assessment process. In this paper, innovative fuzzy bow-tie method is used to assess the risks to overcome the lack of prior probability problem in aviation operations.

中文翻译：

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模糊贝叶斯领结分析降低不稳定方法的风险

目的

稳定进场概念对于航空公司在进场和着陆阶段的安全运营至关重要。这项研究的目的是使用领结法分析不稳定的方法，并确定可能在不稳定方法中造成风险的威胁。

设计/方法/方法

在这项研究中，通过使用模糊领结法和贝叶斯网络对不稳定方法进行风险评估。领结法是事件树分析和故障树分析的结合。在分析中使用贝叶斯网络来查看基本事件和中间事件的相互关系以及更新后验概率。最后，通过安全性能指标值验证分析结果。

发现

在这项研究中，使用模糊领结法计算了风险评估系统提出的数值模型的概率值。因此，风险评估系统已转换为可以概率方式表达的结构，并且检查了系统内风险之间的关系，并发现可能发生的变化对风险值的影响普遍存在。

创意/价值

领结模型被广泛应用于评估航空风险。在风险评估过程中，并非总是可能获得先验概率。本文采用创新的模糊领结法来评估风险，以克服航空运营中先验概率问题的缺乏。