In the risk assessment of water inrush in karst tunnel, it is most important to provide an available theoretical model for qualifying the epistemic uncertainties due to a lack of knowledge and information. Firstly, a mechanical model dependent on geology is introduced associating with four parameters, i.e., the elastic modulus , the Poisson ratio , the water differential pressure , and the tunnel radius . Then, a mathematical model representing epistemic uncertainty is represented with probability theory and possibility theory. The methodology was computerized to calculate the distribution of the margin and uncertainty and then to determine the ratio of “margin/uncertainty.” Analyses involving possibility theory and possibility theory are illustrated with the same engineering example used in the presentation indicated above to illustrate the use of probability to represent aleatory and epistemic uncertainty in QMU analyses. The comparison between the uses of possibility theory and probability theory for the representation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty indicates that the possibility is not only has a better mathematical structure than probability theory but also has some challenges.

中文翻译：

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基于可能性理论的认知不确定度的岩溶隧道突水不确定度评估。

在岩溶隧道突水风险评估中，最重要的是提供一个可用的理论模型来鉴定由于缺乏知识和信息而导致的不确定性。首先，依赖于地质力学模型引入具有四个参数，即，弹性模量相关联，泊松比，水压差，以及隧道半径。然后，用概率论和可能性论来表示代表认知不确定性的数学模型。该方法被计算机化以计算保证金和不确定性的分布，然后确定“保证金/不确定性”的比率。涉及可能性理论和可能性理论的分析与上述演示中使用的工程示例相同，用于说明在QMU分析中使用概率来表示偶然性和认知不确定性。比较可能性理论和概率理论在表示偶然性和认知不确定性方面的应用表明，可能性不仅具有比概率论更好的数学结构，而且还存在一些挑战。