Recruitment variability is poorly understood for Bering Sea crab stocks. The nearshore area in southwest Bristol Bay (Alaska, USA) is hypothesized as having historically (i.e., prior to ~ 1980) been the most important spawning ground for Bristol Bay red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) because post‐larvae are thought to have been most likely to reach optimal settlement habitat along the Alaska Peninsula when hatched from this area as part of an endless‐belt reproductive strategy. We coupled a biophysical and oceanographic circulation model to test this hypothesis, investigate larval connectivity of more recent female spatial distributions, and evaluate the importance of climate variability on larval advection trajectories. Predicted settlement success varied through changes in larval pelagic duration and oceanographic circulation patterns: Shorter advective distance was associated with warmer conditions, causing higher rates of local retention relative to cold conditions. Contrary to earlier models, most larvae hatched in southwest Bristol Bay were advected offshore away from good habitat, whereas larvae hatched in central and nearshore Bristol Bay were retained in or advected to good habitat along the Alaska Peninsula. Our results suggest contemporary spatial distributions can supply settlement‐competent larvae to nurseries along the Alaska Peninsula and that under certain conditions, larvae may reach the Pribilof Islands when hatched from southwest Bristol Bay. Our study informs the role of environmental variability on larval transport and provides context within which to structure future investigations of recruitment mechanisms.

中文翻译：

---

布里斯托尔湾的红帝王蟹幼虫平流：对招聘变异的影响

白令海螃蟹种群的招聘变异性知之甚少。据推测，布里斯托尔湾西南部（美国阿拉斯加）的近岸地区在历史上（即，1980年前）是布里斯托尔湾红帝王蟹（Paralithodes camtschaticus）最重要的产卵场。），因为从无核带繁殖策略中孵出后，幼虫最有可能到达阿拉斯加半岛的最佳定居栖息地。我们结合了生物物理和海洋环流模型来检验这一假设，调查最近女性空间分布的幼虫连通性，并评估气候变化对幼虫平流轨迹的重要性。预测的定居成功因幼体上层浮游持续时间和海洋环流模式的变化而变化：对流距离越短，气候条件就越温暖，相对于寒冷条件，导致局部滞留率更高。与早期的模型相反，西南布里斯托尔湾孵化的大多数幼体被平移到远离良好栖息地的海上，而在布里斯托尔湾中部和近岸孵化的幼虫则保留在阿拉斯加半岛沿岸或栖息于该地区的良好栖息地。我们的结果表明，当代的空间分布可以为阿拉斯加半岛的苗圃提供具有定居能力的幼虫，并且在某些条件下，从西南布里斯托尔湾孵化的幼虫可能会到达普里比洛夫群岛。我们的研究告知环境变异性在幼体运输中的作用，并为构建未来的募集机制调查提供背景。从布里斯托尔湾西南部孵化的幼虫可能会到达普里比洛夫群岛。我们的研究告知环境变异性在幼体运输中的作用，并为构建未来的募集机制调查提供背景。从布里斯托尔湾西南部孵化的幼虫可能会到达普里比洛夫群岛。我们的研究告知环境变异性在幼体运输中的作用，并为构建未来的募集机制调查提供背景。