Abstract Characterized by rock sediments and complicated storage mechanisms, shale reservoir development is to create flow systems comprised of complex natural fissures and hydraulic fracture stimulation such that the hydrocarbons in the reservoir can be recovered economically. The prediction of shale reservoir production performance is critical for reservoir management and challenging due to the compounding nature of multiple flow mechanisms one encounters during the life of a shale gas well. Given empirical nature, many models based on curve-fitting historical production data prone to inaccurately forecast well's rates in shale gas reservoirs, particularly when the production history of a well is short. This paper further extends the applicability of the Connected Reservoir Storage Model (CRSM) to shale reservoirs. The CRSM was derived from diffusivity theory by using historical production rate and bottomhole flowing pressure (BHFP) to determine the reservoir behavior and unit pressure response, and it can be conveniently used to predict production performance under variable operating conditions. The CRSM is mathematically robust and easy for application since it can be determined with limited reservoir information without knowing the reservoir geometry or reservoir permeability. This study uses the operational history of a shale gas well to demonstrate the CRSM's capability in rate prediction and couples the model with stochastic methods to approximate the most probable outcome under variable operating conditions.

中文翻译：

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使用连接储层存储模型预测页岩气性能

摘要 页岩油藏开发具有岩石沉积、储集机制复杂等特点，是通过复杂的天然裂隙和水力压裂改造形成水流系统，实现油藏油气的经济回收。由于在页岩气井的生命周期中会遇到多种流动机制的复合性质，因此页岩储层生产性能的预测对于储层管理至关重要并且具有挑战性。鉴于经验性质，许多基于曲线拟合历史生产数据的模型容易错误地预测页岩气储层的井速，特别是当井的生产历史很短时。本文进一步扩展了连通储层存储模型 (CRSM) 对页岩储层的适用性。CRSM 源自扩散率理论，通过使用历史产量和井底流动压力 (BHFP) 来确定储层行为和单位压力响应，可以方便地用于预测可变操作条件下的生产性能。CRSM 在数学上稳健且易于应用，因为它可以在不知道储层几何形状或储层渗透率的情况下利用有限的储层信息来确定。本研究使用页岩气井的运行历史来证明 CRSM 的速率预测能力，并将模型与随机方法相结合，以在可变运行条件下近似最可能的结果。