Abstract During a trapping study interval, each target insect is either caught or not caught. Therefore, the current analysis treats trapping as a binomial process. Data from a binomial calculator, along with computer simulations of random walkers, documented that the inherent variance associated with estimates of absolute population density generated by a single catch number in a pheromone-baited monitoring trap becomes very high when catch probability averaged across the trap's sampling area falls below 0.02, as is the case for most insect trapping systems operating in the open field. The imprecision associated with interpretations of single catch numbers renders many current pest management decisions risky and unsatisfactory. Here we reinforce how single-trap, multiple-release experiments can and should be used to measure catch probability, plume reach, and trap sampling area. When catch probability lies in the danger zone below 0.02, steps are suggested for how multiple traps might be deployed to raise composite catch probability to a level where estimates of absolute pest density become reliable. Heat transfer is offered as an appropriate conceptual model for the mechanics of trapping. A call is made for a radical rethinking in the designs of insect monitoring traps in light of their significant current deficits highlighted by this study.

中文翻译：

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提高害虫管理决策的精确度：评估从信息素诱饵诱捕器监测随机移动的昆虫得出的捕获数和绝对密度估计值中固有的可变性

摘要 在诱捕研究间隔期间，每个目标昆虫要么被捕获，要么未被捕获。因此，当前的分析将诱捕视为二项式过程。来自二项式计算器的数据以及随机游走者的计算机模拟证明，当捕获概率在整个陷阱采样中平均时，与由信息素诱饵监测陷阱中的单个捕获数量产生的绝对种群密度估计值相关的固有方差变得非常高面积低于 0.02，这与大多数在开阔地工作的昆虫诱捕系统的情况一样。与单一捕捞数量解释相关的不精确性使得许多当前的有害生物管理决策具有风险且不能令人满意。在这里，我们强调了如何使用单陷阱、多次释放实验来衡量捕获概率，羽流到达和捕集采样区。当捕获概率位于低于 0.02 的危险区域时，建议如何部署多个陷阱以将复合捕获概率提高到绝对有害生物密度估计值变得可靠的水平。传热作为捕获力学的适当概念模型提供。鉴于本研究强调了昆虫监测陷阱目前存在的重大缺陷，因此呼吁彻底重新思考昆虫监测陷阱的设计。传热作为捕获力学的适当概念模型提供。鉴于本研究强调了昆虫监测陷阱目前存在的重大缺陷，因此呼吁彻底重新思考昆虫监测陷阱的设计。传热作为捕获力学的适当概念模型提供。鉴于本研究强调了昆虫监测陷阱目前存在的重大缺陷，因此呼吁彻底重新思考昆虫监测陷阱的设计。