Geothermal energy is a viable alternative to gas for the heating of buildings, industrial areas and greenhouses, and can thus play an important role in making the transition to sustainable energy in the Netherlands. Heat is currently produced from the Dutch subsurface through circulation of water between two wells in deep (1.5–3 km) geothermal formations with temperature of up to ∼100 °C. As the number of these so-called doublets is expected to increase significantly over the next decades, and targeted depths and temperatures increase, it is important to assess potential show-stoppers related to geothermal operations. One of these potential hazards is the possibility of the occurrence of felt seismic events, which could potentially damage infrastructure and housing, and affect public support. Such events have been observed in several geothermal systems in other countries. Here we review the occurrence (or the lack) of felt seismic events in geothermal systems worldwide and identify key factors influencing the occurrence and magnitude of these events. Based on this review, we project the findings for seismicity in geothermal systems to typical geothermal formations and future geothermal developments in the Netherlands. The case study review shows that doublets that circulate fluids through relatively shallow, porous, sedimentary aquifers far from the crystalline basement are unlikely to generate felt seismic events. On the other hand, stimulations or circulations in or near competent, fractured, basement rocks and production and reinjection operations in high-temperature geothermal fields are more prone to induce felt events, occasionally with magnitudes of M > 5.0. Many of these operations are situated in tectonically active areas, and stress and temperature changes may be large. The presence of large, optimally oriented and critically stressed faults increases the potential for induced seismicity. The insights from the case study review suggest that the potential for the occurrence of M > 2.0 seismicity for geothermal operations in several of the sandstone target formations in the Netherlands is low, especially if faults can be avoided. The potential for induced seismicity may be moderate for operations in faulted carbonate rocks. Induced seismicity always remains a complex and site-specific process with large unknowns, and can never be excluded entirely. However, assessing the potential for inducing felt seismic events can be improved by considering the relevant (site-specific) geological and operational key factors discussed in this article.

地热能是替代天然气用于建筑，工业区和温室供暖的可行替代品，因此可以在荷兰向可持续能源的过渡中发挥重要作用。目前，通过深层（1.5–3 km）深层地热层中两口井之间的水循环，水从荷兰地下产生热量，温度最高可达约100°C。由于在接下来的几十年中，这些所谓的双峰的数量预计将显着增加，并且目标深度和温度也将上升，因此重要的是评估与地热作业有关的潜在阻拦物。这些潜在的危害之一是可能发生毡状地震事件，这有可能损坏基础设施和房屋并影响公众支持。在其他国家的几个地热系统中也观察到了此类事件。在这里，我们回顾了全世界地热系统中感觉到的地震事件的发生（或缺乏），并确定了影响这些事件的发生和程度的关键因素。在此基础上，我们将荷兰地热系统中地震活动的发现预测为典型的地热构造和未来的地热发展。案例研究回顾表明，使流体通过远离晶体基底的较浅的，多孔的，沉积的含水层循环的双重结构不太可能产生毡状地震事件。另一方面，在高温地热田中，能胜任的，破裂的，基底岩石中或附近的刺激或循环以及生产和回注作业更容易诱发毡状事件，M > 5.0。这些操作中有许多都位于构造活动区，应力和温度变化可能很大。大型，最佳定向和临界应力断层的存在增加了诱发地震的可能性。案例研究回顾的见解表明，M发生的可能性在荷兰，几个砂岩目标地层的地热作业> 2.0地震活动度很低，尤其是在可以避免断层的情况下。对于断层碳酸盐岩的作业，诱发地震的可能性可能中等。诱发地震活动始终是一个复杂且针对特定地点的过程，具有大量未知数，并且永远不能完全排除。但是，通过考虑本文讨论的相关（针对特定地点）的地质和操作关键因素，可以提高评估诱发毡状地震事件的可能性。