Abstract Global warming is a major threat to the natural environment worldwide with potential adverse impact on plankton community. This will ultimately lead to a change in the dynamics of aquatic food webs. In this study we used seasonally forced multi-species version of the classic Rosenzweig–MacArthur predator–prey model to understand the role and stochastic influence of increasing temperature on marine plankton. First, stable coexistence of four phytoplankton and three zooplankton species was created in a system and then the level of temperature changed to achieve our research goal. We found that the stable coexistence of phytoplankton and zooplankton was related to periodic shifts in species biomass, variation in inter-specific competition and niche configuration. Warming significantly reduced total plankton biomass and changed turnover time of a species, with gradual warming breaking the stable coexistence of phytoplankton and zooplankton. In addition, we found that warming make specialist species more vulnerable than generalist species. After adding noise, a significant variation was observed in plankton biomass and amplification of noise was higher for phytoplankton compared to zooplankton. These results suggest that stochastic or unpredictable nature of temperature fluctuations may create a window of opportunity for the emergence of new species. Overall, warming would induce a shift in plankton dynamics and thereby exert pressure on plankton dependent communities such as fish in the long run.

中文翻译：

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温度升高和海洋浮游生物群落动态：变暖是坏事吗？

摘要 全球变暖是对全球自然环境的重大威胁，对浮游生物群落有潜在的不利影响。这最终将导致水生食物网动态发生变化。在这项研究中，我们使用了经典 Rosenzweig-MacArthur 捕食者-猎物模型的季节性强制多物种版本来了解温度升高对海洋浮游生物的作用和随机影响。首先，在一个系统中创造了四种浮游植物和三种浮游动物物种的稳定共存，然后改变温度水平以实现我们的研究目标。我们发现浮游植物和浮游动物的稳定共存与物种生物量的周期性变化、种间竞争和生态位配置的变化有关。变暖显着降低了浮游生物总生物量并改变了物种的周转时间，逐渐变暖打破了浮游植物和浮游动物的稳定共存。此外，我们发现变暖使特殊物种比通才物种更脆弱。添加噪音后，浮游生物生物量发生显着变化，浮游植物的噪音放大率高于浮游动物。这些结果表明，温度波动的随机性或不可预测性可能为新物种的出现创造了机会之窗。总体而言，变暖会导致浮游生物动态发生变化，从而从长远来看对依赖浮游生物的群落（如鱼类）施加压力。我们发现变暖使特殊物种比通才物种更脆弱。添加噪音后，浮游生物生物量发生显着变化，浮游植物的噪音放大率高于浮游动物。这些结果表明，温度波动的随机性或不可预测性可能为新物种的出现创造了机会之窗。总体而言，变暖会导致浮游生物动态发生变化，从而从长远来看对依赖浮游生物的群落（如鱼类）施加压力。我们发现变暖使特殊物种比通才物种更脆弱。添加噪音后，浮游生物生物量发生显着变化，浮游植物的噪音放大率高于浮游动物。这些结果表明，温度波动的随机性或不可预测性可能为新物种的出现创造了机会之窗。总体而言，变暖会导致浮游生物动态发生变化，从而从长远来看对依赖浮游生物的群落（如鱼类）施加压力。这些结果表明，温度波动的随机性或不可预测性可能为新物种的出现创造了机会之窗。总体而言，变暖会导致浮游生物动态发生变化，从而从长远来看对依赖浮游生物的群落（如鱼类）施加压力。这些结果表明，温度波动的随机性或不可预测性可能为新物种的出现创造了机会之窗。总体而言，变暖会导致浮游生物动态发生变化，从而从长远来看对依赖浮游生物的群落（如鱼类）施加压力。