当前位置: X-MOL 学术Theor. Appl. Climatol. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Projected climate change in the Karkheh Basin, Iran, based on CORDEX models
Theoretical and Applied Climatology ( IF 2.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s00704-020-03335-9
Hamzeh Ahmadi , Noredin Rostami , Abbasali Dadashi-roudbari

Climate change is one of the most important challenges facing watersheds. In this study, the effects of climate change in the Karkheh River Basin (KRB), located in the Iranian plateau, have been investigated. The temperature and precipitation, as significant climatic parameters, have been investigated using the observed data (1980–2017), as a baseline period, and the projected data (2020–2090) which can be regarded as the output of the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) model based on RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios. The status of the snow cover changes was evaluated using MODIS TERRA satellite sensors. The results show that there has been a downward trend in the precipitation amount in most of the KRB, at 95% confidence level. The projected results also show that the amount of annual precipitation will decrease with the deviation from the baseline period. According to RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the amount of annual precipitation will decrease by 88.2 and 56.1 mm, respectively, as compared with the baseline period. Moreover, the air temperature trend in the future period will be increased by deviation from the baseline period. Thus, by the end of this century and according to RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 scenarios, the minimum temperatures will rise by 4.5 and 2.5 °C, respectively. Evaluation of the snow cover status of the study area, based on the MODIS sensor over the last two decades, shows that the amount of snow covers has been decreasing, reflecting global warming in recent years. Therefore, long-term planning and water resources management, considering the climate change condition, are considered significant in this basin.



中文翻译:

基于CORDEX模型的伊朗卡尔克海盆地预计气候变化

气候变化是流域面临的最重要挑战之一。在这项研究中,已经研究了气候变化对位于伊朗高原的Karkheh流域(K​​RB)的影响。温度和降水作为重要的气候参数,已经使用观测数据(1980-2017年)作为基准期进行了研究,并将预测数据(2020-2090年)视为区域气候协调降尺度的输出基于RCP8.5和RCP4.5方案的实验(CORDEX)模型。使用MODIS TERRA卫星传感器评估了积雪变化的状态。结果表明,在大多数KRB中,降水量呈下降趋势,置信度为95%。预测结果还表明,年降水量将随着偏离基准期而减少。根据RCP8.5和RCP4.5情景,与基准期相比,年降水量将分别减少88.2和56.1 mm。此外,未来时期的气温趋势将因偏离基准时期而增加。因此,到本世纪末,根据RCP8.5和RCP4.5方案,最低温度将分别升高4.5和2.5°C。在过去的20年中,基于MODIS传感器对研究区域的积雪状况进行了评估,结果表明积雪的数量一直在减少,这反映了近年来全球变暖的趋势。因此,长期规划和水资源管理,

更新日期:2020-08-05
down
wechat
bug