Forecasting factory productivity is a critical task. However, it is not easy owing to the uncertainty of productivity. Existing methods often forecast productivity using a fuzzy number. However, the range of a fuzzy productivity forecast is wide owing to the consideration of extreme cases. In this study, a fuzzy collaborative forecasting approach is proposed to forecast factory productivity using a type-II fuzzy number and by narrowing the forecast’s range. The outer section of the type-II fuzzy number determines the range of productivity, while the inner section is defuzzified to derive the most likely value. Based on the experimental results, the proposed methodology surpassed existing methods in improving forecasting precision and accuracy, with a reduction in the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of up to 74%.

预测工厂生产率是一项关键任务。然而，由于生产率的不确定性，这并不容易。现有方法通常使用模糊数来预测生产率。但是，由于考虑了极端情况，因此模糊生产率预测的范围很广。在这项研究中，提出了一种模糊协作预测方法来使用II型模糊数并通过缩小预测范围来预测工厂生产率。II型模糊数的外部部分确定生产率的范围，而内部模糊处理以得出最可能的值。根据实验结果，该方法在提高预测精度和准确性方面优于现有方法，平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）降低了74％。