Roads do not only have a detrimental effect on nature (fragmenting habitats, isolating populations and threatening biodiversity), but the increasing numbers of wildlife-vehicle collisions are also a direct threat to humans and property. Therefore, mitigation measures should be placed with respect to animal distribution and movements across the roads. We simulated red deer, roe deer and wild boar movements in Lithuania, focusing on the two main highways A1 and A2. Using regional habitat suitability and linkage models, we calculated movement pathways and the most probable crossing zones in 2009. The prognostic value of these models was tested by comparing the pathway predictions to the real roadkill and roadkill cluster locations in 2002–2009 and 2010–2017. Across both periods and on both highways, the roe deer roadkill locations were significantly closer to the model-predicted pathways than to randomly selected points. The prediction of roadkill locations was also good for wild boar. The roe deer roadkill clusters and multi-species clusters were significantly better represented by the model than by random distribution. On both highways, the biggest differences in distance from the predicted locations were near big cities. We recommended wildlife movement models as an additional tool for planning wildlife-vehicle collision mitigation measures and we advise measures for increasing their predicting power.

中文翻译：

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基于生境适应性的道路杀伤力预测的模型。

道路不仅对自然产生不利影响（使生境破碎化，人口隔离，威胁生物多样性），而且越来越多的野生生物与车辆碰撞也直接威胁着人类和财产。因此，应针对动物分布和马路移动采取缓解措施。我们模拟了立陶宛的红鹿，ro和野猪运动，重点是两条主要公路A1和A2。使用区域生境适宜性和联系模型，我们计算了2009年的移动路径和最可能的穿越区域。通过将路径预测与2002–2009年和2010–2017年的实际道路杀伤和道路杀伤群位置进行比较，测试了这些模型的预后价值。 。在两个时期和两条高速公路上，road道路杀伤剂的位置比随机选择的位置更接近模型预测的路径。道路杀害地点的预测对野猪也有好处。该模型代表的road鹿道路杀伤性集群和多物种集群明显​​优于随机分布。在两条高速公路上，距预测位置的最大距离差异是在大城市附近。我们建议将野生动植物的运动模型作为规划缓解野生动植物与车辆碰撞的措施的附加工具，并建议采取措施提高其预测能力。该模型代表的road鹿道路杀伤性集群和多物种集群明显​​优于随机分布。在两条高速公路上，距预测位置的最大距离差异是在大城市附近。我们建议使用野生动植物运动模型作为规划缓解野生生物与车辆碰撞的措施的附加工具，并建议采取措施提高其预测能力。该模型代表的road鹿道路杀伤性集群和多物种集群明显​​优于随机分布。在两条高速公路上，距预测位置的最大距离差异是在大城市附近。我们建议使用野生动植物运动模型作为规划缓解野生生物与车辆碰撞的措施的附加工具，并建议采取措施提高其预测能力。