The anthropogenic impacts of development and frequent droughts have limited Iran's water availability. This has major implications for Iran's agricultural sector which is responsible for about 90% of water consumption at the national scale. This study investigates if declining water availability impacted agriculture in Iran. Using the Mann‐Kendall and Sen's slope estimator methods, we explored the changes in Iran's agricultural production and area during the 1981–2013 period. Despite decreasing water availability during this period, irrigated agricultural production and area continuously increased. This unsustainable agricultural development, which would have been impossible without the overabstraction of surface and ground water resources, has major long‐term water, food, environmental, and human security implications for Iran.

中文翻译：

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伊朗的人类世农业

发展的人为影响和频繁的干旱限制了伊朗的水供应。这对伊朗的农业部门有重大影响，伊朗的农业部门在全国范围内消耗了约90％的水。这项研究调查了水供应的下降是否对伊朗的农业产生了影响。使用曼恩·肯德尔（Mann-Kendall）和森（Sen）的斜率估算器方法，我们探索了1981-2013年期间伊朗农业生产和面积的变化。尽管在此期间水的供应量减少，但灌溉农业的产量和面积仍在不断增加。如果不过度吸收地表和地下水资源，这种不可持续的农业发展是不可能的，这对伊朗具有重大的长期水，粮食，环境和人类安全影响。