Drought is a major natural hazard that can have devastating impacts on regional agriculture, water supply, ecological environment and social economy. Extreme events, including droughts, are expected to be severer and more frequent because of climate warming. This paper presents an analysis of observed changes and future projections of meteorological drought in the Daqing River Basin (DRB), North China, based on the modified Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI_mod). Observed changes of meteorological drought are analyzed based on the precipitation series of 26 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2011, and future projections are made under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5) from 2021 to 2050. The result shows a change from wet to dry detected in most areas of the DRB in summer, winter and annual series. The drought risk is higher under the condition of “OR” and “AND” return period during the observation period, and the high-risk regions cover a large area. The drought risk from 2021 to 2050 will increase across the basin under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, compared with which in the base period from 1971 to 2000. Most regions will be at a higher drought risk under the condition of “OR” return period, and the area with high-risk under RCP 4.5 is slightly larger than that under RCP 8.5. Under the condition of “AND” return period, the high-risk regions will cover the area from the northwest to the northeast, while the area of high-risk regions under RCP 8.5 will be larger than that under RCP 4.5. The result of this paper will be helpful for performing an efficient water resource management in the DRB under the impacts of global warming and climate change.

干旱是一种重大自然灾害，可能对区域农业，供水，生态环境和社会经济造成破坏性影响。由于气候变暖，包括干旱在内的极端事件预计会更加严重和频繁。本文基于修正的标准降水指数（SPI _mod），对华北大庆河流域（DRB）气象干旱的观测变化和未来预测进行了分析。）。根据1971年至2011年26个气象站的降水序列，对观测到的气象干旱变化进行了分析，并根据2021年至2050年的两个有代表性的集中路径（RCP 4.5和8.5）做出了未来的预测。在夏季，冬季和年度系列中，DRB的大部分地区都检测到干燥。在观测期内“或”和“与”返回期的条件下，干旱风险较高，高风险地区面积较大。与RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5相比，整个盆地在2021年至2050年的干旱风险将增加，而在1971年至2000年的基准时期，干旱风险将更大。在“ OR”返回期的条件下，大多数地区的干旱风险较高， RCP 4.5下的高风险区域略大于RCP 8.5下的高风险区域。在“ AND”返回期的条件下，高风险区域将覆盖从西北到东北的区域，而RCP 8.5下的高风险区域的面积将大于RCP 4.5下的区域。本文的结果将有助于在全球变暖和气候变化的影响下在DRB中进行有效的水资源管理。