A growing number of cases have proved the possibility of airborne transmission of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Ensuring an adequate ventilation rate is essential to reduce the risk of infection in confined spaces. In this study, we estimated the association between the infection probability and ventilation rates with the Wells-Riley equation, where the quantum generation rate (q) by a COVID-19 infector was obtained using a reproductive number-based fitting approach. The estimated q value of COVID-19 is 14–48 h⁻¹. To ensure an infection probability of less than 1%, a ventilation rate larger than common values (100–350 m³/h per infector and 1200–4000 m³/h per infector for 0.25 h and 3 h of exposure, respectively) is required. If the infector and susceptible person wear masks, then the ventilation rate ensuring a less than 1% infection probability can be reduced to a quarter respectively, which is easier to achieve by the normal ventilation mode applied in typical scenarios, including offices, classrooms, buses, and aircraft cabins. Strict preventive measures (e.g., wearing masks and preventing asymptomatic infectors from entering public spaces using tests) that have been widely adopted should be effective in reducing the risk of infection in confined spaces.

越来越多的病例证明了空气传播 2019 年冠状病毒病 (COVID-19) 的可能性。确保足够的通风率对于降低密闭空间的感染风险至关重要。在这项研究中，我们使用 Wells-Riley 方程估计了感染概率和通风率之间的关联，其中 COVID-19 感染者的量子生成率 ( q ) 是使用基于繁殖数的拟合方法获得的。COVID-19的估计q值为 14–48 h ^-1。为确保感染概率小于 1%，通风率大于常用值（每个感染者 100-350 m ³ /h 和 1200-4000 m ³/h 每个感染者分别暴露 0.25 小时和 3 小时）是必需的。如果感染者和易感者都戴上口罩，那么保证感染概率低于1%的通风率可以分别降低到四分之一，这在办公室、教室、公共汽车等典型场景应用的正常通风模式下更容易实现和飞机客舱。已广泛采用的严格预防措施（例如，戴口罩和通过检测防止无症状感染者进入公共场所）应能有效降低密闭空间的感染风险。