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Impacts of climate change on energy systems in global and regional scenarios
Nature Energy ( IF 49.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-08-03 , DOI: 10.1038/s41560-020-0664-z
Seleshi G. Yalew , Michelle T. H. van Vliet , David E. H. J. Gernaat , Fulco Ludwig , Ariel Miara , Chan Park , Edward Byers , Enrica De Cian , Franziska Piontek , Gokul Iyer , Ioanna Mouratiadou , James Glynn , Mohamad Hejazi , Olivier Dessens , Pedro Rochedo , Robert Pietzcker , Roberto Schaeffer , Shinichiro Fujimori , Shouro Dasgupta , Silvana Mima , Silvia R. Santos da Silva , Vaibhav Chaturvedi , Robert Vautard , Detlef P. van Vuuren

Although our knowledge of climate change impacts on energy systems has increased substantially over the past few decades, there remains a lack of comprehensive overview of impacts across spatial scales. Here, we analyse results of 220 studies projecting climate impacts on energy systems globally and at the regional scale. Globally, a potential increase in cooling demand and decrease in heating demand can be anticipated, in contrast to slight decreases in hydropower and thermal energy capacity. Impacts at the regional scale are more mixed and relatively uncertain across regions, but strongest impacts are reported for South Asia and Latin America. Our assessment shows that climate impacts on energy systems at regional and global scales are uncertain due partly to the wide range of methods and non-harmonized datasets used. For a comprehensive assessment of climate impacts on energy, we propose a consistent multi-model assessment framework to support regional-to-global-scale energy planning.



中文翻译:

全球和区域情景中气候变化对能源系统的影响

尽管在过去的几十年中,我们对气候变化对能源系统的影响的了解已大大增加,但仍然缺乏对跨空间尺度影响的全面概述。在这里,我们分析了220项研究的结果,这些研究预测了气候对全球和区域范围内能源系统的影响。在全球范围内,与水力发电和热能发电量的小幅下降相反,预计制冷需求可能会增加,供热需求可能会减少。区域范围内的影响更为混杂,并且各区域之间的不确定性相对较大,但是据报道,对南亚和拉丁美洲影响最大。我们的评估表明,气候在区域和全球范围内对能源系统的影响尚不确定,部分原因是所使用的方法和非统一数据集广泛。

更新日期:2020-08-03
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