Background and Objective: COVID-19 has engulfed the entire world, with many countries struggling to contain the pandemic. In order to understand how each country is impacted by the virus compared with what would have been expected prior to the pandemic and the mortality risk on a global scale, a multi-factor weighted spatial analysis is presented. Method: A number of key developmental indicators across three main categories of demographics, economy, and health infrastructure were used, supplemented with a range of dynamic indicators associated with COVID-19 as independent variables. Using normalised COVID-19 mortality on 13 May 2020 as a dependent variable, a linear regression (N = 153 countries) was performed to assess the predictive power of the various indicators. Results: The results of the assessment show that when in combination, dynamic and static indicators have higher predictive power to explain risk variation in COVID-19 mortality compared with static indicators alone. Furthermore, as of 13 May 2020 most countries were at a similar or lower risk level than what would have been expected pre-COVID, with only 44/153 countries experiencing a more than 20% increase in mortality risk. The ratio of elderly emerges as a strong predictor but it would be worthwhile to consider it in light of the family makeup of individual countries. Conclusion: In conclusion, future avenues of data acquisition related to COVID-19 are suggested. The paper concludes by discussing the ability of various factors to explain COVID-19 mortality risk. The ratio of elderly in combination with the dynamic variables associated with COVID-19 emerge as more significant risk predictors in comparison to socio-economic and demographic indicators.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 全球风险：预期与现实。

背景和目标：COVID-19 已席卷整个世界，许多国家都在努力遏制这一流行病。为了了解每个国家受到该病毒的影响与大流行之前的预期相比以及全球范围内的死亡风险，提出了多因素加权空间分析。方法：使用了人口统计、经济和卫生基础设施三个主要类别的许多关键发展指标，并辅以与 COVID-19 相关的一系列动态指标作为自变量。使用 2020 年 5 月 13 日标准化的 COVID-19 死亡率作为因变量，进行线性回归（N = 153 个国家）以评估各种指标的预测能力。结果：评估结果表明，与单独使用静态指标相比，动态和静态指标相结合具有更高的预测能力来解释 COVID-19 死亡率的风险变化。此外，截至 2020 年 5 月 13 日，大多数国家的风险水平与新冠疫情爆发前的预期相似或更低，只有 44/153 个国家的死亡风险增加了 20% 以上。老年人的比例是一个强有力的预测因素，但值得根据各个国家的家庭构成来考虑。结论：总而言之，建议了与 COVID-19 相关的数据采集的未来途径。本文最后讨论了各种因素解释 COVID-19 死亡风险的能力。与社会经济和人口指标相比，老年人的比例以及与 COVID-19 相关的动态变量成为更重要的风险预测因素。