Understanding the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes, especially the baseflow, is vital for sustainable water resource management. We analyzed the global changes in baseflow and baseflow index (BFI) for 2,374 global streamflow stations from 1970 to 2016 to examine their associations with precipitation, temperature, terrestrial water storage (TWS), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) representing the vegetation regimes, potential evapotranspiration (PET), and a humidity index (HI)‐precipitation/PET. Results showed that changes in both baseflow and BFI are significantly region dependent in continents, due to spatial differences of changes in climate and vegetation that determines the baseflow generation. Seasonal baseflow changed slightly, while seasonal BFI varied greatly, partly due to the shift from snowfall to rainfall and warming effects on glacial retreat and the timing of snowmelt. The multibasin baseflow elasticity analyses show that baseflow (BFI) was highly sensitive to changes in NDVI, precipitation, and temperature (temperature and PET). The multivariate regression analyses show that globally, changes in precipitation and TWS contributed to the majority (64.8% and 20.2%) of changes in baseflow, while changes in HI, PET, and precipitation contributed to the majority (30.3%, 28.9%, and 27.5%) of changes in BFI. The spatially varying interaction between climate, vegetation, and baseflow implies that regional adaptation of water resources utilization to climate change should consider the regional shifts in vegetation. This study quantified the elasticity and relative contribution of changes in geographic factors to changes in baseflow and BFI around the world and could inform practices for sustainable water management.

中文翻译：

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气候和植被变化影响下的全球底流变化

了解气候变化和人类活动对水文过程（尤其是基流）的影响，对于可持续水资源管理至关重要。我们分析了1970年至2016年全球2374个流站的基础流量和基础流量指数（BFI）的全球变化，以研究它们与代表植被状况的降水，温度，陆地水储量（TWS），归一化植被指数（NDVI）的关联，潜在的蒸散量（PET）和湿度指数（HI）沉淀/ PET。结果表明，由于决定底流产生的气候和植被变化的空间差异，大陆上底流和BFI的变化都显着取决于区域。季节性基流略有变化，而季节性BFI则存在很大差异，部分原因是从降雪转向降雨，以及变暖对冰川退缩和融雪时间的影响。多流域基流弹性分析表明，基流（BFI）对NDVI，降水和温度（温度和PET）的变化高度敏感。多元回归分析显示，全球范围内，降水量和TWS的变化占基流变化的大部分（64.8％和20.2％），而HI，PET和降水量的变化占基本流量的大部分（30.3％，28.9％和27.5％）的BFI变化。气候，植被和基流之间的空间变化相互作用意味着，水资源利用对气候变化的区域适应性应考虑植被的区域转移。