Crowd movement simulation models are generally based on aggregated speed and flow data collected more than 50 years ago. There appears to be no validated modelling capability to include the impact of recent and future changes in population demographics, resulting from an ageing population and increasing obesity rates. New analytical approaches and data gathering are required to successfully model crowd movement and safety for current and future generations. This study carried out (a) a review of the primary components of crowd movement, demographics and analytical techniques, (b) prototype experiments to investigate age‐related aspects of space and potential points of contact and (c) a new predictive model for crowd flow analysis based on pedestrian biomechanics and anthropometric data. The model uses the physical space taken up by the biomechanical walking process and the spatial buffer between points of potential contact with other pedestrians to predict the speed of movement at different levels of congestion. The new analytical model was used to predict single file speeds (for people with different demographics in congested space), which compared well with published experimental data. The next steps for model development for wider “flows” and additional experiments to provide data sets for wider demographics are also proposed.

中文翻译：

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探索步行和人群“流动”的生物力学

人群运动仿真模型通常基于50年前收集的速度和流量汇总数据。似乎没有经过验证的建模能力，无法涵盖人口老龄化和肥胖率上升所导致的人口统计学近期和未来变化的影响。需要新的分析方法和数据收集来成功地模拟当前和后代的人群移动和安全性。这项研究进行了（a）人群运动，人口统计学和分析技术的主要组成部分的回顾，（b）原型实验以研究与年龄相关的空间和潜在接触点，以及（c）人群的新预测模型基于行人生物力学和人体测量数据的流量分析。该模型利用生物机械步行过程占用的物理空间以及与其他行人的潜在接触点之间的空间缓冲区来预测不同拥堵程度下的运动速度。新的分析模型用于预测单个文件的速度（适用于在拥挤空间中具有不同人口统计特征的人），并将其与已发布的实验数据进行了比较。还提出了为更广泛的“流程”开发模型的下一步步骤，以及为更广泛的人口统计提供数据集的附加实验。与已发布的实验数据进行了比较。还提出了为更广泛的“流程”开发模型的下一步步骤，以及为更广泛的人口统计提供数据集的附加实验。与已发布的实验数据进行了比较。还提出了为更广泛的“流程”开发模型的下一步步骤，以及为更广泛的人口统计提供数据集的附加实验。