Abstract This paper assesses the uncertainties in the structural reliability levels of thick high strength pipelines with active corrosion defects subjected to internal pressure. A general burst strength model and other applicable to thick high strength pipes are adopted and their predictions uncertainty over a wide range of corrosion defect depths is assessed by Monte Carlo simulation. A 3-parameter lognormal probability model is adopted to describe the uncertainty in the burst pressure. Global and corrosion defect depth dependent model uncertainty factors are derived by comparing the predictions of the burst strength models with burst test data of corroded pipes. Burst failure limit states are formulated in terms of the burst strength models and corresponding model uncertainty factors. Linear and nonlinear corrosion models are adopted to describe the growth of corrosion defects. The uncertainty on the safety levels of pipelines due to the uncertainty on the corrosion defect, corrosion growth model and reliability algorithm is assessed. The results presented for the two strength models provide insights on the adequacy of a thick high strength burst model for probabilistic applications in comparison with a general burst strength model.

中文翻译：

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内压腐蚀缺陷厚壁高强管道可靠性的不确定性

摘要 本文评估了内压作用下具有活性腐蚀缺陷的厚壁高强度管道结构可靠性水平的不确定性。采用通用爆破强度模型和其他适用于厚高强度管道的模型，并通过蒙特卡罗模拟评估它们在广泛腐蚀缺陷深度范围内的预测不确定性。采用三参数对数正态概率模型来描述爆破压力的不确定性。通过将爆破强度模型的预测与腐蚀管道的爆破测试数据进行比较，推导出全局和腐蚀缺陷深度相关的模型不确定因素。根据爆破强度模型和相应的模型不确定因素制定爆破失效极限状态。采用线性和非线性腐蚀模型来描述腐蚀缺陷的增长。由于腐蚀缺陷、腐蚀增长模型和可靠性算法的不确定性，对管道安全水平的不确定性进行了评估。与一般爆破强度模型相比，两种强度模型的结果提供了对用于概率应用的厚高强度爆破模型的充分性的见解。