We provide novel evidence on the effects of ill-health on the dynamics of labour state transitions by considering retirement as mobility between full-time work, part-time work, self-employment and inactivity. We employ a dynamic multi-state model which accounts for state dependence and different types of unobservables. Our model allows for both individual heterogeneity and labour-state gravity as well as correlations between labour market states. We estimate this model on rich longitudinal data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey. We find that both ill-health and health shocks greatly increase the probability of leaving full-time employment and moving into inactivity. Simulated dynamic trajectories suggest larger impacts of long-term health conditions than those of a one-off health shock and some evidence of health-driven retirement pathways via part-time work and self-employment. Our findings also indicate that the effects of health changes could be underestimated and the magnitude of true labour market state dependence overestimated if individual effects or labour dynamic transitions are not accounted for in the model.

中文翻译：

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劳动力老龄化、健康不佳和多州劳动力市场转型

我们通过将退休视为全职工作、兼职工作、自雇和不活动之间的流动，提供了关于健康不良对劳动状态转变动态影响的新证据。我们采用动态多状态模型，该模型考虑了状态依赖性和不同类型的不可观察性。我们的模型允许个体异质性和劳动力状态引力以及劳动力市场状态之间的相关性。我们根据澳大利亚家庭、收入和劳动力动态调查中丰富的纵向数据估计了该模型。我们发现，健康不佳和健康冲击都大大增加了离开全职工作并进入不活动状态的可能性。模拟的动态轨迹表明，长期健康状况的影响比一次性健康冲击的影响更大，并且有一些证据表明，通过兼职工作和自谋职业，健康驱动的退休途径。我们的研究结果还表明，如果模型中没有考虑个人影响或劳动力动态转变，健康变化的影响可能会被低估，真实劳动力市场状态依赖的程度可能会被高估。