Radiotherapy, especially with charged particles, is sensitive to executional and preparational uncertainties that propagate to uncertainty in dose and plan quality indicators, for example, dose‐volume histograms (DVHs). Current approaches to quantify and mitigate such uncertainties rely on explicitly computed error scenarios and are thus subject to statistical uncertainty and limitations regarding the underlying uncertainty model. Here we present an alternative, analytical method to approximate moments, in particular expectation value and (co)variance, of the probability distribution of DVH‐points, and evaluate its accuracy on patient data.

中文翻译：

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剂量-体积直方图的分析概率模型。

放射疗法，特别是带电粒子的放射疗法，对执行和准备过程的不确定性敏感，这种不确定性会传播到剂量和计划质量指标（例如剂量-体积直方图（DVHs））的不确定性中。当前量化和减轻此类不确定性的方法依赖于显式计算的错误方案，因此受到统计不确定性和有关基础不确定性模型的限制。在这里，我们提出了一种替代的分析方法来近似估计DVH点的概率分布的矩，尤其是期望值和（协）方差，并根据患者数据评估其准确性。