Wildlife are faced with numerous threats to survival, none more pressing than that of climate change. Understanding how species will respond to changing climate behaviorally, physiologically, and demographically is a cornerstone of many contemporary ecological studies, especially for organisms, such as amphibians, whose persistence is closely tied to abiotic conditions. Activity is a useful parameter for understanding the effects of climate change because activity is directly linked to fitness as it dictates foraging times, energy budgets, and mating opportunities. However, activity can be challenging to directly measure, especially for secretive organisms like plethodontid salamanders which only become surface active when conditions are cool and moist due to their anatomical and physiological restrictions. We estimated abiotic predictors of surface activity for the seven species of the Plethodon jordani complex. Five independent data sets collected from 2004-2017 were used to determine the parameters driving salamander surface activity in the present-day, which were then used to predict potential activity changes over the next 80 years. Average active season temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the strongest predictors of salamander surface activity and, without physiological or behavioral modifications, salamanders were predicted to exhibit a higher probability of surface activity during peak active season under future climate conditions. Temperatures during the active season likely do not exceed salamander thermal maxima to cause activity suppression and, until physiological limits are reached, future conditions may continue to increase activity. Our model is the first comprehensive field-based study to assess current and future surface activity probability. Our study provides insights into how a key behavior driving fitness may be affected by climate change.

中文翻译：

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气候变化导致地表活动的预测改变

野生动物面临着无数的生存威胁，最紧迫的莫过于气候变化。了解物种将如何在行为、生理和人口统计方面对气候变化做出反应是许多当代生态研究的基石，尤其是对于两栖动物等生物而言，其持久性与非生物条件密切相关。活动是了解气候变化影响的有用参数，因为活动与健康直接相关，因为它决定了觅食时间、能量预算和交配机会。然而，直接测量活性可能具有挑战性，特别是对于像 plethodontid 蝾螈这样的秘密生物，由于解剖学和生理学的限制，它们只有在凉爽和潮湿的条件下才会变得表面活跃。我们估计了 Plethodon jordani 复合体的七个物种的表面活动的非生物预测因子。从 2004 年到 2017 年收集的五个独立数据集用于确定当今驱动蝾螈表面活动的参数，然后用于预测未来 80 年的潜在活动变化。平均活跃季节温度和蒸气压不足是蝾螈表面活动的最强预测因子，并且在没有生理或行为改变的情况下，预计蝾螈在未来气候条件下的活跃季节高峰期间表现出更高的表面活动概率。活跃季节的温度可能不会超过蝾螈的热最大值以导致活动抑制，并且在达到生理极限之前，未来的情况可能会继续增加活动。我们的模型是第一个基于实地的综合研究，用于评估当前和未来的地表活动概率。我们的研究提供了有关气候变化如何影响驱动健康的关键行为的见解。