Wildfire occurrences is creating serious challenges for fire and emergency response services and a diverse range of communities around the world due to the increment of the occurrence of these disasters. As such, understanding the physical and social dynamics characterizing wildfires events is paramount to reduce the risk of these natural disasters. As such, one of the main challenges is to understand how households perceive wildfires and respond to them as part of the evacuation process.

In this work, the Wildfire Decision Model originally proposed in Lovreglio et al. [1] is calibrated using a hybrid choice model formulation. The Wildfire Decision Model is a newly developed behavioural choice model for large-scale wildfire evacuations based on the estimation of the risk perceived by households and the impact that this has on the decision-making process. This model is calibrated using a hybrid choice modelling solution and survey data collected after the 2016 Chimney Tops 2 wildfire in Tennessee, USA. The proposed model shows good agreement with the preliminary findings available in the wildfire evacuation literature; namely, the perceived risk is affected by both external factors (i.e., warnings and fire cues) and internal factors (i.e., education, previous wildfire evacuation experience and time of residency in a property).

由于这些灾害的发生率不断增加，野火的发生给消防和应急服务以及世界各地的社区造成了严峻的挑战。因此，了解野火事件特征的物理和社会动态对降低这些自然灾害的风险至关重要。因此，主要挑战之一是要了解家庭如何感知野火并在疏散过程中对野火做出反应。

在这项工作中，最初在Lovreglio等人中提出的野火决策模型。[1]使用混合选择模型公式进行校准。“野火决策模型”是一种新开发的针对大规模野火疏散的行为选择模型，其基于对家庭感知的风险及其对决策过程的影响的估计。该模型使用混合选择建模解决方案进行了校准，并在美国田纳西州2016年烟囱Tops 2野火之后收集了调查数据。提出的模型与野火疏散文献中的初步发现显示出很好的一致性；也就是说，感知到的风险受外部因素（例如，警告和火灾提示）和内部因素（即，教育，过往的野火疏散经验和财产居住时间）的影响。