Landscape and climate changes have the potential to create or exacerbate problems with stormwater management, high flows, and flooding. In New England, four plausible land-use scenarios were co-developed with stakeholders to give insight to the effects on ecosystem services of different trajectories of socio-economic connectedness and natural resource innovation. With respect to water, the service of greatest interest to New England stakeholders is the reduction of stormwater and flooding. To assess the effects of these land-use scenarios, we applied the Soil and Water Assessment Tool to two watersheds under two climates. Differences in land use had minimal effects on the water balance but did affect high flows and the contribution of storm runoff to streamflow. For most scenarios, the effect on high flows was small. For one scenario—envisioned to have global socio-economic connectedness and low levels of natural resource innovation—growth in impervious areas increased the annual maximum daily flow by 10%, similar to the 5–15% increase attributable to climate change. Under modest population growth, land-use decisions have little effect on storm runoff and high flows; however, for the two scenarios characterized by global socio-economic connectedness, differences in choices regarding land use and impervious area have a large impact on the potential for flooding. Results also indicate a potential interaction between climate and land use with a shift to more high flows resulting from heavy rains than from snowmelt. These results can help inform land use and development, especially when combined with assessments of effects on other ecosystem services.

中文翻译：

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联合设计的土地利用情景及其对新英格兰风暴径流和径流的影响

景观和气候变化有可能造成或加剧雨水管理、高流量和洪水等问题。在新英格兰，与利益相关者共同开发了四种可能的土地利用情景，以深入了解社会经济联系和自然资源创新的不同轨迹对生态系统服务的影响。关于水，新英格兰利益相关者最感兴趣的服务是减少雨水和洪水。为了评估这些土地利用情景的影响，我们将土壤和水评估工具应用于两种气候下的两个流域。土地利用的差异对水平衡的影响很小，但确实影响了高流量和暴雨径流对河流流量的贡献。对于大多数场景，对高流量的影响很小。对于一种情景——设想具有全球社会经济联系和低水平的自然资源创新——不透水地区的增长使年度最大日流量增加了 10%，类似于气候变化导致的 5-15% 的增长。在人口适度增长的情况下，土地使用决策对风暴径流和高流量几乎没有影响；然而，对于以全球社会经济联系为特征的两种情景，在土地利用和不透水面积方面的选择差异对洪水的可能性有很大影响。结果还表明，气候和土地利用之间存在潜在的相互作用，大雨导致的流量比融雪导致的流量更高。这些结果有助于为土地使用和开发提供信息，尤其是与对其他生态系统服务影响的评估相结合时。