Introduction

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

Areas covered

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

Expert opinion

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

中文翻译：

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从2000年到2019年对脊髓灰质炎病毒建模进行了回顾，以支持全球根除脊髓灰质炎。

介绍

在过去的20年（2000-2019年）中，全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动（GPEI）的合作伙伴投资了脊髓灰质炎病毒传播数学模型的开发和应用以及脊髓灰质炎终末期风险管理方案的经济学，政策和风险分析，包括与脊髓灰质炎末期比赛期间使用脊髓灰质炎疫苗相关的政策。

覆盖区域

这篇评论提供了三个建模小组发表的脊髓灰质炎研究的历史记录，这三个小组主要完成了大部分工作。这篇综述还系统地评估了2000年至2019年间在同行评审期刊上以英文发表的脊髓灰质炎传播和卫生经济建模论文，强调了方法和方法的差异，显示了所进行的传播建模的地理覆盖范围，确定了共同主题并讨论了实例相似或矛盾的见解或建议。

专家意见

在过去的20年中进行的脊髓灰质炎建模极大地影响了脊髓灰质炎疫苗的选择，免疫政策和根除脊髓灰质炎的途径。随着小儿麻痹症的终结，国家对小儿麻痹症疫苗制剂和免疫策略的偏好可能会继续发生变化。未来的建模可能会提供有关其成本效益及其在控制小儿麻痹症以及潜在实现和维持根除方面的相对利益的重要见解。