Introduction

Over the last 20 years (2000-2019) the partners of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) invested in the development and application of mathematical models of poliovirus transmission as well as economics, policy, and risk analyses of polio endgame risk management options, including policies related to poliovirus vaccine use during the polio endgame.

Areas covered

This review provides a historical record of the polio studies published by the three modeling groups that primarily performed the bulk of this work. This review also systematically evaluates the polio transmission and health economic modeling papers published in English in peer-reviewed journals from 2000 to 2019, highlights differences in approaches and methods, shows the geographic coverage of the transmission modeling performed, identified common themes, and discusses instances of similar or conflicting insights or recommendations.

Expert opinion

Polio modeling performed during the last 20 years substantially impacted polio vaccine choices, immunization policies, and the polio eradication pathway. As the polio endgame continues, national preferences for polio vaccine formulations and immunization strategies will likely continue to change. Future modeling will likely provide important insights about their cost-effectiveness and their relative benefits with respect to controlling polio and potentially achieving and maintaining eradication.

中文翻译：

---

对 2000 年至 2019 年为支持全球根除脊髓灰质炎而进行的脊髓灰质炎病毒模型的审查。

 介绍

在过去 20 年（2000 年至 2019 年）中，全球根除脊髓灰质炎行动 (GPEI) 的合作伙伴投资于脊髓灰质炎病毒传播数学模型的开发和应用，以及脊髓灰质炎终局风险管理方案的经济、政策和风险分析，包括与脊髓灰质炎最后阶段使用脊髓灰质炎病毒疫苗有关的政策。

 涵盖领域

这篇综述提供了主要完成这项工作的三个建模小组发表的脊髓灰质炎研究的历史记录。本综述还系统评估了 2000 年至 2019 年在同行评审期刊上以英文发表的脊髓灰质炎传播和健康经济模型论文，强调了方法和方法的差异，显示了所执行的传播模型的地理覆盖范围，确定了共同主题，并讨论了实例类似或冲突的见解或建议。

 专家意见

过去 20 年进行的脊髓灰质炎建模极大地影响了脊髓灰质炎疫苗的选择、免疫政策和根除脊髓灰质炎的途径。随着脊髓灰质炎最后阶段的继续，全国对脊髓灰质炎疫苗配方和免疫策略的偏好可能会继续发生变化。未来的模型可能会提供有关其成本效益及其在控制脊髓灰质炎以及可能实现和维持根除方面的相对效益的重要见解。