ABSTRACT

Introduction

We are witnessing an alarming increase in the burden and range of mosquito-borne arboviral diseases. The transmission dynamics of arboviral diseases is highly sensitive to climate and weather and is further affected by non-climatic factors such as human mobility, urbanization, and disease control. As evidence also suggests, climate-driven changes in species interactions may trigger evolutionary responses in both vectors and pathogens with important consequences for disease transmission patterns.

Areas covered

Focusing on dengue and chikungunya, we review the current knowledge and challenges in our understanding of disease risk in a rapidly changing climate. We identify the most critical research gaps that limit the predictive skill of arbovirus risk models and the development of early warning systems, and conclude by highlighting the potentially important research directions to stimulate progress in this field.

Expert opinion

Future studies that aim to predict the risk of arboviral diseases need to consider the interactions between climate modes at different timescales, the effects of the many non-climatic drivers, as well as the potential for climate-driven adaptation and evolution in vectors and pathogens. An important outcome of such studies would be an enhanced ability to promulgate early warning information, initiate adequate response, and enhance preparedness capacity.

中文翻译：

---

在不断变化的气候中，登革热和基孔肯雅热的传播动态：我们是否了解生态进化反应？

摘要

介绍

我们目睹了蚊子传播的虫媒病毒疾病的负担和范围的惊人增长。虫媒病毒疾病的传播动态对气候和天气高度敏感，并且进一步受到非气候因素（例如人类流动性，城市化和疾病控制）的影响。也有证据表明，气候驱动的物种相互作用的变化可能会触发媒介和病原体的进化反应，从而对疾病的传播方式产生重要影响。

覆盖区域

重点关注登革热和基孔肯雅热，我们在了解快速变化的气候中的疾病风险时回顾了当前的知识和挑战。我们确定了最关键的研究空白，这些空白限制了虫媒病毒风险模型的预测能力和预警系统的发展，并通过强调潜在的重要研究方向来促进该领域的进展，从而得出结论。

专家意见

旨在预测虫媒病毒疾病风险的未来研究需要考虑不同时间尺度上气候模式之间的相互作用，许多非气候驱动因素的影响以及气候驱动的媒介和病原体适应和进化的潜力。此类研究的重要成果将是增强发布预警信息，启动适当反应和增强备灾能力的能力。