As global mean sea level continues to rise, thresholds corresponding to coastal inundation impacts are exceeded more frequently. This paper aims to relate sea level rise (SLR) observations and projections to their physical on‐the‐ground impacts. Using a large coastal city as an example, we show that in Sydney, Australia, frequencies of minor coastal inundation have increased from 1.6 to 7.8 days per year between 1914 and present day. We attribute over 80% of the observed coastal inundation events between 1970 and 2015 to the predominantly anthropogenic increases in global mean sea level. Further, we find that impact‐producing coastal inundation will occur weekly by 2050 under high‐ and medium‐emission/SLR scenarios and daily by 2100 under high emissions. The proportion of tide‐only coastal inundation events (i.e., where no storm surge is required to exceed flood thresholds) will increase with SLR, such that most coastal inundation events, including those considered historically severe, will become a predictable consequence of SLR and astronomical tides. These findings are important for coastal managers as frequency, severity, and predictability of inundation impacts can all now be related to the amount of SLR (e.g., a planning allowance or SLR projection). By incorporating known historical inundation events, this allows contextualization, visualization, and localization of global SLR and the changing nature of future coastal inundation risk.

中文翻译：

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海平面上升导致澳大利亚悉尼的海岸淹没日趋可预测

随着全球平均海平面继续上升，与沿海淹没影响相对应的阈值被更频繁地超过。本文旨在将海平面上升（SLR）的观测和预测与其物理对地面的影响联系起来。以一个沿海大城市为例，我们表明，在澳大利亚悉尼，从1914年至今，每年沿海小洪水的发生频率从每年1.6天增加到7.8天。我们将1970年至2015年期间观察到的80％以上的沿海淹没事件归因于全球平均海平面的主要人为增加。此外，我们发现，在高排放和中排放/ SLR情景下，到2050年每周都会产生影响的沿海淹没，而在高排放下，到2100年每天都会发生。仅潮汐的沿海淹没事件的比例（即 不需要风暴潮来超过洪水阈值的地区）将随着SLR的增加而增加，因此大多数沿海淹没事件，包括历史上被认为是严重的事件，将成为SLR和天文潮的可预测结果。这些发现对沿海管理者很重要，因为淹水影响的发生频率，严重性和可预测性现在都可以与SLR的数量有关（例如，规划津贴或SLR预测）。通过合并已知的历史淹没事件，可以对全球SLR进行上下文化，可视化和本地化，并可以改变未来沿海淹没风险的性质。这些发现对沿海管理者很重要，因为淹水影响的发生频率，严重性和可预测性现在都可以与SLR的数量有关（例如，规划津贴或SLR预测）。通过合并已知的历史淹没事件，可以对全球SLR进行上下文化，可视化和本地化，并可以改变未来沿海淹没风险的性质。这些发现对沿海管理者很重要，因为淹水影响的发生频率，严重性和可预测性现在都可以与SLR的数量有关（例如，规划津贴或SLR预测）。通过合并已知的历史淹没事件，可以对全球SLR进行上下文化，可视化和本地化，并可以改变未来沿海淹没风险的性质。