We present an assessment of the plausible Paris-aligned fair share nett cumulative carbon dioxide (CO₂) quota for an example nation state, the Republic of Ireland. By Paris-aligned, we mean consistent with the Paris Agreement adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, at Paris, France, in December 2015 (UNFCCC 2015). We compare and contrast this quota with both the aspirations expressed in the current Irish National Policy Position and current national emission projections. The fair share quota is assessed as a maximum of c. 391 million tonnes of carbon dioxide (MtCO₂), equal to 83 tonnes of carbon dioxide (tCO₂) per capita, from 2015, based on a precautionary estimate of the global carbon budget (GCB) and specific interpretation of global equity. Given Ireland’s high current CO₂ per capita emission rate, this would correspond to sustained year-on-year reductions in nett annual CO₂ emissions of over − 11% per year (beginning as of 2016). By contrast, the CO₂ mitigation target indicated in the National Policy Position corresponds to nett annual reduction rates in the range of only −4.7% per year (low ambition) up to a maximum of − 8.3% per year (high ambition), and projections based on current and immediately planned mitigation measures indicate the possibility, instead, of sustained increases in emissions at a rate of the order of + 0.7% per year. Accordingly, there is a large gap between Paris-aligned ambition and current political and policy reality on the ground, with a significant risk of early emergence of “CO₂ debt” and tacit reliance on rapid deployment of currently speculative (at a relevant scale and feasible cost) negative CO₂ emission technologies to actively remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. While the detailed policy situation will clearly differ from country to country, we suggest that this methodology, and its CO₂debt framing, may be usefully applied in other individual countries or regions. We recommend that such framing be incorporated explicitly into a global mitigation strategy via the statements of nationally determined contributions required to be submitted and updated by all parties under the Paris Agreement processes.

中文翻译：

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从剩余的全球碳预算的国家“公平份额”的角度评估二氧化碳的负排放

我们对一个示例性国家爱尔兰共和国的合理的巴黎对齐公平份额净累积二氧化碳（CO ₂）配额进行了评估。以巴黎为准，我们的意思是与2015年12月在法国巴黎举行的《联合国气候变化框架公约》第二十一次缔约方会议通过的《巴黎协定》保持一致（UNFCCC 2015）。我们将此配额与当前爱尔兰国家政策立场和当前国家排放预测中表达的愿望进行比较和对比。公平份额配额的评估上限为c。3.91亿吨二氧化碳（MtCO ₂），等于83吨二氧化碳（tCO ₂），根据全球碳预算（GCB）的预防性估计和对全球权益的具体解释，从2015年开始，按人均计算。鉴于爱尔兰目前的高人均CO ₂排放率，这将相当于每年净降低CO ₂年度排放量持续减少超过-11％（从2016年开始）。相比之下，《国家政策立场》中指出的CO ₂减排目标对应的净年度减少率仅为每年-4.7％（低目标），最高每年-8.3％（高目标），以及基于当前和立即计划的缓解措施的预测表明，有可能持续增长每年的排放量约为+ 0.7％。因此，与巴黎一致的野心与当前的现实政治和政策现实之间存在很大差距，存在着“ CO ₂债务”提早出现和默认依赖当前投机的迅速部署（在一定规模和范围内）的巨大风险。可行的成本）负CO ₂排放技术，以主动从大气中去除CO ₂。虽然具体的政策情况显然因国家/地区而异，但我们建议采用这种方法以及其CO ₂债务框架，可能会有用地应用于其他单个国家或地区。我们建议将这种框架通过《巴黎协定》进程所有当事方要求提交和更新的国家确定的捐款声明，明确地纳入全球缓解战略。