In the UK, heating systems are the most prominent contributor to residential energy demand, with about 80% of the share. Their representation has thus been at the core of all UK-focussed Housing Stock Energy Models (HSEMs). However, these HSEMs estimate heating demand based on monthly or annual energy balances, with correspondingly approximate representations of heating systems and practices (incl. energy conversion, distribution and spatiotemporal control). This paper describes an extension to the dynamic HSEM: EnHub, to rigorously simulate space heating and hot-water components (i.e. heaters, boilers, pumps, radiators, end-point registers, thermostats, taps). Baseline simulations estimate the English housing stock's energy use as 35.9 mtoe. Alternative scenarios in which heating systems are substituted across the board to district heating or ground-source heat pumps predict a reduction in demand to 30 and 18 mtoe respectively; the latter potentially being zero-carbon if the power sector is successfully decarbonised.

Abbreviations

ASHP: Air Source Heat Pump; BREDEM: Building Research Establishment Domestic Energy Model; CHM: Cambridge Housing Model; DHW: domestic hot water; EHS: English Housing Survey; EnHub: housing stock Energy Hub; GSHP: Ground Source Heat Pump; GUI: Graphical User Interface; HDD: Heating Degree Day; HSEM: Housing Stock Energy Model; idf: EnergyPlus Input Data File; IEA: International Energy Agency; LHS: Latin Hypercube Sampling; NEED: National Energy Efficiency Data-Framework; SAP: Standard Assessment Procedure; SH: space heating; UK: United Kingdom

在英国，供暖系统是住宅能源需求的最主要贡献者，约占80％。因此，它们的代表一直是所有以英国为中心的住房存量能源模型（HSEM）的核心。但是，这些HSEM根据每月或每年的能源平衡估算供暖需求，并以近似的方式表示供暖系统和做法（包括能源转换，分配和时空控制）。本文介绍了对动态HSEM：EnHub的扩展，以严格模拟空间供暖和热水组件（即加热器，锅炉，泵，散热器，端点寄存器，恒温器，水龙头）。基线模拟估计英国房屋库存的能源使用量为35.9 mtoe。将供暖系统全部替换为区域供热或地源热泵的替代方案预测需求分别减少至30和18 mtoe；如果电力部门成功脱碳，则后者可能为零碳。

缩略语

ASHP：空气源热泵；BREDEM：建筑研究机构的国内能源模型；CHM：剑桥住房模型；DHW：生活热水；EHS：英国房屋调查；EnHub：房屋库存能源枢纽；GSHP：地源热泵；GUI：图形用户界面；硬盘：加热度日；HSEM：房屋库存能源模型；idf：EnergyPlus输入数据文件；IEA：国际能源署；LHS：拉丁文Hypercube抽样；需求：国家能效数据框架；SAP：标准评估程序；SH：空间加热；英国：英国