Geographers and environmental scientists use conceptual models to understand ecological processes and support management decisions. Most of these models are based on short-term experiments and field observations, which might not account for longer term forces that shape ecosystems over decades to centuries. How can scholars use historical sources and methods to improve conceptual models of ecological change? In this article, we present the results of a study that employed methods from environmental history and historical geography to assess three conceptual models that researchers have used to study ecological changes on California’s hardwood rangelands: the succession and climax, state and transition, and cyclical replacement models. The succession and climax model fared poorly at all spatial scales. The historical record contained substantial evidence to support the predictions of the state and transition model at the small spatial scale of the plot or field (0.1–100 ha) and the very large spatial scale of the hardwood rangeland bioregion (4 million ha). The cyclical replacement model performed well at the intermediate scale of the landscape or typical cattle ranch (100–10,000 ha). Historical data and methods hold considerable untapped potential for assessing, building on, and improving conceptual models of ecological change in geography and the environmental sciences.

地理学家和环境科学家使用概念模型来理解生态过程并支持管理决策。这些模型中的大多数都是基于短期实验和现场观察而得出的，这可能无法解释影响数十年至数百年的生态系统的长期力量。学者们如何利用历史资源和方法来改善生态变化的概念模型？在本文中，我们介绍了一项研究结果，该研究结果运用了环境历史和历史地理学的方法来评估研究人员用来研究加利福尼亚硬木牧场生态变化的三种概念模型：演替与高潮，状态与过渡以及周期性替代楷模。演替和高潮模型在所有空间尺度上都表现不佳。历史记录包含大量证据，可支持在样地或田地的小空间规模（0.1-100公顷）和硬木牧场生物区的大空间规模（400万公顷）下对状态和过渡模型的预测。周期性替换模型在景观的中等规模或典型的牧场（100-10,000公顷）中表现良好。历史数据和方法在评估，建立和改进地理学和环境科学中生态变化的概念模型方面具有巨大的未开发潜力。周期性替换模型在景观的中等规模或典型的牧场（100-10,000公顷）中表现良好。历史数据和方法在评估，建立和改进地理学和环境科学中的生态变化的概念模型方面具有巨大的未开发潜力。周期性替换模型在景观的中等规模或典型的牧场（100-10,000公顷）中表现良好。历史数据和方法在评估，建立和改进地理学和环境科学中的生态变化的概念模型方面具有巨大的未开发潜力。