On the evening of 23 June 2016 around 18:00 UTC, a mesoscale convective system (MCS) with hail and wind gusts passed the southern province Noord-Brabant in the Netherlands, and caused 675 millions of euros damage. This study evaluates the performance of the Weather Research and Forecasting model with three cumulus parameterisation schemes (Betts–Miller–Janjic, Grell–Freitas and Kain–Fritsch) on a grid spacing of 4 km in the ‘grey-zone’ and with explicitly resolved convection at 2 and 4 km grid spacing. The results of the five experiments are evaluated against observations of accumulated rainfall, maximum radar reflectivity, the CAPE evolution and wind speed. The results show that the Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme is activated too early and can therefore not predict any MCS over the region of interest. The Grell–Freitas and Kain–Fritsch schemes do predict an MCS, but its intensity is underestimated. With the explicit convection, the model is able to resolve the storm, though with a delay and an overestimated intensity. We also study whether spatial uncertainty in soil moisture is scaled up differently using parameterised or explicitly resolved convection. We find that the uncertainty in soil moisture distribution results in larger uncertainty in convective activity in the runs with explicit convection and the Grell–Freitas scheme, while the Kain–Fritsch and Betts–Miller–Janjic scheme clearly present a smaller variability.

中文翻译：

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荷兰夏季雷暴​​的中尺度模型模拟：参数化和对流的性能和不确定性评估

2016年6月23日晚上，世界标准时间（UTC），具有冰雹和阵风的中尺度对流系统（MCS）通过了荷兰南部的北部省份诺德-布拉班特，造成6.75亿欧元的损失。这项研究使用“三个区域”中的三个累积参数化方案（贝茨-米勒-詹吉克，格里尔-弗雷塔斯和凯恩-弗里奇）评估了“灰色区域”中4 km网格间距上的天气研究和预报模型的性能，并对其进行了明确解析。对流在2和4 km网格间距处。根据对累积降雨，最大雷达反射率，CAPE演变和风速的观察，评估了这五个实验的结果。结果表明，贝茨-米勒-詹吉克方案激活得太早，因此无法预测感兴趣区域内的任何MCS。Grell-Freitas和Kain-Fritsch方案确实可以预测MCS，但其强度却被低估了。借助显式对流，该模型能够解决风暴，尽管存在延迟和强度被高估的情况。我们还研究了使用参数化对流或显式解析对流对土壤水分的空间不确定性是否有不同程度的放大。我们发现，土壤湿度分布的不确定性导致显着对流和Grell-Freitas方案运行中对流活动的不确定性较大，而Kain-Fritsch和Betts-Miller-Janjic方案显然具有较小的变异性。我们还研究了使用参数化对流或显式解析对流对土壤水分的空间不确定性是否有不同程度的放大。我们发现，土壤湿度分布的不确定性导致显着对流和Grell-Freitas方案运行中对流活动的不确定性较大，而Kain-Fritsch和Betts-Miller-Janjic方案显然具有较小的变异性。我们还研究了使用参数化对流或显式解析对流对土壤水分的空间不确定性是否有不同程度的放大。我们发现，土壤湿度分布的不确定性导致显着对流和Grell-Freitas方案运行中对流活动的不确定性较大，而Kain-Fritsch和Betts-Miller-Janjic方案显然具有较小的变异性。