This paper studies the diffusion process of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) in the European Union and beyond. Based on a logistic technology diffusion model, growth processes described by S-curves are predicted for a selction of 18 EU countries and five additional benchmark countries worldwide. This paper shows that for fixed upper bounds of the diffusion process, the investigated countries differ in terms of predicted diffusion speeds. Thus, the time for them to reach saturation in the number of adopters varies as well. In order to understand these different diffusion processes and their determinants, the factors influencing the diffusion speed in a subsample of 14 European countries are empirically analyzed. In addition to investigating country fixed effects and socio-economic factors, this paper focuses on government incentives and their impact on the diffusion rate. The paper reveals that financial incentives in the form of purchase price advantages do play an important role in this context. At the same time, the analysis does not confirm a significant impact of tax regulations and non-financial incentives on the diffusion speed.

本文研究了欧盟及其他地区的电动汽车（BEV）的扩散过程。基于逻辑技术扩散模型，预计S曲线描述的增长过程将选择18个欧盟国家和全球另外五个基准国家。本文表明，对于固定的扩散过程上限，被调查的国家在预测扩散速度方面存在差异。因此，他们达到采用者数量饱和的时间也有所不同。为了理解这些不同的扩散过程及其决定因素，对14个欧洲国家的子样本中影响扩散速度的因素进行了经验分析。除了调查国家的固定影响和社会经济因素之外，本文着重于政府激励措施及其对扩散率的影响。该文件表明，在这种情况下，以购买价格优势形式出现的经济诱因确实起着重要作用。同时，该分析并未确认税收法规和非经济激励措施对扩散速度的重大影响。