Abstract For some volcanoes, the only evidence for past eruption is provided by historical accounts. When interpreted carefully, these have the potential to be a rich source of information, and yet they have so far been under-utilised in reconstructing eruption histories. The navigator Thomas Forrest describes a large eruption at Makaturing volcano, southern Philippines, in approximately 1765 that he considers the catalyst for the local Iranun population transitioning from an agrarian society to long-distance piracy and slave raiding. Within the historical literature, the eruption is attributed to large scale physical impacts around the volcano and disruptions to trading routes and livelihoods that ultimately changed the course of southeast Asia's history. However, no such eruption (or impacts) are recognised in the scientific literature or in eruption databases, and fieldwork to the region remains difficult. Here, we reinterpret the account of Forrest from a multi-disciplinary perspective, with a historian and physical volcanologists working together to incorporate the greatly needed local context into identifying credible volcanic processes and impacts associated with the reported activity. We used a novel approach to eruption reconstruction by cross-referencing deposits and impacts inferred from the historical record with stochastic tephra dispersal modelling that considered multiple eruption sources and characteristics. We found that Forrest's account was best characterised by an eruption of ~VEI 4 between May and October, with plume heights in the range of 12 to 16 km. While at least one eruption of this size was required to reproduce the impacts described in the historical record, it may have formed part of a longer sequence of multiple, repeated eruptions. In this way, such an eruption could have acted as a ‘tipping point’ for a local population already on the verge of socio-political and economic collapse, disproportionately affecting regions on a much larger scale than the reported deposits suggest. There remains a disconnect between the eruption characteristics recorded in historical accounts and those reproduced by numerical modelling, for which we propose alternative interpretations of the historical record. Unfortunately, given the minimal details available about the eruption, this discordance is unlikely to be resolved, even when geological studies are possible. However, a valuable benefit of the probabilistic modelling approach presented here is that it highlights the likely direction of tephra dispersal and deposition during a future eruption of Makaturing, supporting rapid tephra hazard assessment in the event of future unrest.

中文翻译：

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从历史记载中重建喷发：Makaturing c。1765，菲律宾

摘要 对于一些火山，过去喷发的唯一证据是历史记载。如果仔细解释，这些有可能成为丰富的信息来源，但迄今为止，它们在重建喷发历史方面并未得到充分利用。航海家托马斯·福雷斯特 (Thomas Forrest) 描述了大约 1765 年菲律宾南部马卡图灵火山的一次大规模喷发，他认为这是当地伊朗人口从农业社会过渡到长途海盗和奴隶劫掠的催化剂。在历史文献中，火山喷发归因于火山周围的大规模物理影响以及贸易路线和生计的中断，最终改变了东南亚历史的进程。然而，科学文献或火山喷发数据库中没有发现此类喷发（或影响），对该地区的实地工作仍然很困难。在这里，我们从多学科的角度重新解释福雷斯特的描述，历史学家和自然火山学家共同努力，将非常需要的当地背景纳入确定与报告活动相关的可信火山过程和影响。我们使用了一种新的喷发重建方法，通过交叉参考从历史记录中推断出的沉积物和影响，以及考虑了多个喷发源和特征的随机火山灰扩散模型。我们发现 Forrest 的描述最好的特征是在 5 月和 10 月之间爆发了 ~VEI 4，羽流高度在 12 到 16 公里的范围内。虽然至少需要一次这种规模的喷发才能重现历史记录中描述的影响，但它可能已经形成了多次重复喷发的较长序列的一部分。这样，对于已经处于社会政治和经济崩溃边缘的当地居民来说，这样的火山喷发可能成为一个“临界点”，对地区的影响比报告的沉积物所显示的要大得多。历史记载中记录的喷发特征与数值模型再现的喷发特征之间仍然存在脱节，为此我们提出了对历史记录的替代解释。不幸的是，鉴于有关火山喷发的可用细节很少，即使地质研究是可能的，这种不一致也不太可能得到解决。然而，