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Collision risk assessment based on the vulnerability of marine accidents using fuzzy logic
International Journal of Naval Architecture and Ocean Engineering ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-30 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ijnaoe.2020.06.005
Yancai Hu , Gyei-Kark Park

Based on the trend, there have been numerous researches analysing the ship collision risk. However, in this scope, the navigational conditions and external environment are ignored or incompletely considered in training or/and real situation. It has been identified as a significant limitation in the navigational collision risk assessment. Therefore, a novel algorithm of the ship navigational collision risk solving system has been proposed based on basic collision risk and vulnerabilities of marine accidents. The vulnerability can increase the possibility of marine collision accidents. The factors of vulnerabilities including bad weather, tidal currents, accidents prone area, traffic congestion, operator fatigue and fishing boat operating area are involved in the fuzzy reasoning engines to evaluate the navigational conditions and environment. Fuzzy logic is employed to reason basic collision risk using Distance to Closest Point of Approach (DCPA) and Time of Closest Point of Approach (TCPA) and the degree of vulnerability in the specific coastal waterways. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) method is used to obtain the integration of vulnerabilities. In this paper, vulnerability factors have been proposed to improve the collision risk assessment especially for non-SOLAS ships such as coastal operating ships and fishing vessels in practice. Simulation is implemented to validate the practicability of the designed navigational collision risk solving system.



中文翻译:

基于模糊逻辑的海洋事故脆弱性碰撞风险评估

基于这种趋势,已经有许多研究分析船舶碰撞风险。然而,在该范围内,在训练或/和真实情况下忽略或不完全考虑导航条件和外部环境。它已被确定为航行碰撞风险评估中的重大限制。因此,基于基本的碰撞风险和海上事故的脆弱性,提出了一种船舶航行碰撞风险解决系统的新算法。该漏洞可能增加海上碰撞事故的可能性。模糊推理引擎涉及脆弱性因素,包括恶劣天气,潮流,易发事故区域,交通拥堵,操作员疲劳和渔船作业区域,以评估航行条件和环境。模糊逻辑被用来利用到最近的接近点的距离(DCPA)和最近的接近点的时间(TCPA)以及特定沿海水道的脆弱程度来推理基本的碰撞风险。层次分析法(AHP)方法用于获取漏洞的集成。在本文中,提出了脆弱性因素以改善碰撞风险评估,特别是对于非SOLAS船舶,例如在实践中的沿海作业船和渔船。通过仿真来验证所设计的导航碰撞风险解决系统的实用性。层次分析法(AHP)方法用于获取漏洞的集成。在本文中,已经提出了脆弱性因素以改善碰撞风险评估,特别是对于非SOLAS船舶,例如实践中的沿海作业船和渔船。通过仿真来验证所设计的导航碰撞风险解决系统的实用性。层次分析法(AHP)方法用于获取漏洞的集成。在本文中,已经提出了脆弱性因素以改善碰撞风险评估,特别是对于非SOLAS船舶,例如实践中的沿海作业船和渔船。通过仿真来验证所设计的导航碰撞风险解决系统的实用性。

更新日期:2020-07-30
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