Since the 1970s, the crested porcupine Hystrix cristata has expanded its range into Northern regions in Italy, where it was historically absent, helped by climatic change, legal protection, and forest re-expansion. In the past 10 years, a remarkable range expansion has also been observed in the southernmost Italian regions. The aim of our work was to summarize the distribution of this species in Southern Italy and assess potential range expansion under multiple future scenarios of global warming. We collected 1783 occurrence records of the crested porcupine through ad-hoc web pages, online platforms, and some data directly collected by authors (N = 976 occurrences between 1998 and 2008; N = 807 between 2008 and 2019). A remarkable increase in porcupine records occurred in Lucania, Campania, and Apulia regions, in Southern Italy, mostly along the coastlines. Species distribution models showed that porcupine presence is associated with warm temperatures and an intermediate level of precipitation. Although land-cover showed lower importance compared to climate, the species was positively associated with forests and negatively associated with agricultural, grasslands and shrublands, and urban landscapes. Model projections suggested that future global warming can improve suitability for porcupines in the Apennine ridge, including the Southern Calabria and the Aspromonte National Park. However, increase in drought and urbanization may reduce the habitat suitability for the crested porcupine in the Salento peninsula, limiting the success of the range expansion by this large rodent, and in Eastern Calabria, wih possible range contractions along the Tyrrhenian coast.

中文翻译：

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南方是如何获胜的：意大利南部凤头豪猪目前和潜在的范围扩大

自 1970 年代以来，在气候变化、法律保护和森林重新扩张的帮助下，凤头豪猪 Hystrix cristata 已将其范围扩大到意大利的北部地区，在那里它历史上是缺席的。在过去的 10 年中，在意大利最南端的地区也观察到了显着的范围扩大。我们工作的目的是总结该物种在意大利南部的分布，并评估未来多种全球变暖情景下的潜在范围扩大。我们通过临时网页、在线平台和作者直接收集的一些数据收集了 1783 条凤头豪猪的发生记录（1998 年至 2008 年间发生了 N = 976 次；2008 年至 2019 年间发生了 N = 807 次）。在意大利南部的卢卡尼亚、坎帕尼亚和普利亚地区，豪猪记录显着增加，主要是沿着海岸线。物种分布模型表明，豪猪的存在与温暖的温度和中等水平的降水有关。尽管与气候相比，土地覆盖的重要性较低，但该物种与森林呈正相关，与农业、草地和灌木丛以及城市景观呈负相关。模型预测表明，未来的全球变暖可以提高亚平宁山脊中豪猪的适宜性，包括南卡拉布里亚和阿斯普罗蒙特国家公园。然而，干旱和城市化的加剧可能会降低萨伦托半岛凤头豪猪的栖息地适宜性，从而限制了这种大型啮齿动物和卡拉布里亚东部地区扩大范围的成功，第勒尼安海岸可能会缩小范围。物种分布模型表明，豪猪的存在与温暖的温度和中等水平的降水有关。尽管与气候相比，土地覆盖的重要性较低，但该物种与森林呈正相关，与农业、草地和灌木丛以及城市景观呈负相关。模型预测表明，未来的全球变暖可以提高亚平宁山脊中豪猪的适宜性，包括南卡拉布里亚和阿斯普罗蒙特国家公园。然而，干旱和城市化的加剧可能会降低萨伦托半岛凤头豪猪的栖息地适宜性，从而限制了这种大型啮齿动物和卡拉布里亚东部地区扩张的成功，可能会导致第勒尼安海岸沿线的范围缩小。物种分布模型表明，豪猪的存在与温暖的温度和中等水平的降水有关。尽管与气候相比，土地覆盖的重要性较低，但该物种与森林呈正相关，与农业、草地和灌木丛以及城市景观呈负相关。模型预测表明，未来的全球变暖可以提高亚平宁山脊中豪猪的适宜性，包括南卡拉布里亚和阿斯普罗蒙特国家公园。然而，干旱和城市化的加剧可能会降低萨伦托半岛凤头豪猪的栖息地适宜性，从而限制了这种大型啮齿动物和卡拉布里亚东部地区扩张的成功，可能会导致第勒尼安海岸沿线的范围缩小。