Geographic range size predicts species’ responses to land‐use change and intensification, but the reason why is not well established because many correlates of larger geographic ranges, such as realized niche breadth, may mediate species’ responses to environmental change. Agricultural land uses (hereafter ‘agroecosystems’) have warm, dry and more variable microclimates than do cooler and wetter mature forests, so are predicted to filter for species that have warmer, drier and broader fundamental and realized niches. To test these predictions, we estimated species’ realized niches, for temperature and precipitation, and geographic range sizes of 764 insect species by matching GBIF occurrence records to global climate layers, and modelled how species presence/absence in mature forest and nearby agroecosystems depend on species’ realized niches or geographic ranges. The predicted species niche effects consistently matched the expected direction of microclimatic transition from mature forest to agroecosystems. We found a clear signal that species with preference for warmer and drier climates were more likely to be present in agroecosystems. In addition, the probability that species occurred in different land‐use types was predicted better by species’ realized niche than their geographic range size. However, niche effects are often context‐dependent and varied amongst studies, taxonomic groups and regions used in this analysis: predicting which particular aspects of species’ realized niche cause sensitivity to land‐use change, and the underpinning mechanisms, remains a major challenge for future research and multiple components of species’ realized niches may be important to consider. Using realized niches derived from open‐source occurrence records can be a simple and widely applicable tool to help identify when biodiversity responds to the microclimate component of land‐use change.

中文翻译：

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农业土地利用中的昆虫发生取决于已实现的生态位和地理范围特性

地理范围的大小可以预测物种对土地利用变化和集约化的响应，但之所以没有充分说明这一原因，是因为较大的地理范围的许多相关因素（例如已实现的利基宽度）可能会介导物种对环境变化的响应。与凉爽和湿润的成熟森林相比，农业土地利用（以下简称“农业生态系统”）具有温暖，干燥和变化多端的小气候，因此预计将筛选出具有更温暖，更干燥和更广泛的基础生态位和已实现生态位的物种。为了检验这些预测，我们通过将GBIF发生记录与全球气候层相匹配，估算了764种昆虫物种的已实现生态位，温度和降水以及地理范围大小，并模拟了成熟森林和附近农业生态系统中物种存在与否如何取决于物种已实现的生态位或地理范围。预测的物种生态位效应始终符合从成熟森林到农业生态系统的小气候转变的预期方向。我们发现了一个明确的信号，即偏好于温暖和干燥气候的物种更可能存在于农业生态系统中。另外，物种在不同土地利用类型中发生的可能性比物种的地理范围大小更能预测物种的实际生态位。但是，生态位效应通常取决于具体情况，并且在该分析中使用的研究，分类组和地区之间存在差异：预测物种已实现生态位的哪些特定方面对土地利用变化产生敏感性，以及基础机制，仍然是未来研究的主要挑战，物种已实现的生态位的多个组成部分可能值得考虑。使用源自开源事件记录的已实现生态位可以是一种简单且广泛适用的工具，可以帮助确定生物多样性何时对土地利用变化的微气候成分做出响应。