Exploring the dynamic mechanism of rumor reversal in several public emergency events can support managers to control and guild the spread of public opinion. In this study a two-stage rumor model, namely, susceptible, positive, negative, and recovered state (SPNR) is built to analyze rumor spread and reversal of rumors regarding emergencies on Weibo. The model considers the hysteresis of official news and public swing mentality based on epidemic models. To validate the proposed model, we compare the simulated data and the spread curve of rumor reversal on the basis of the real event “Chongqing bus plunging into the river”. The result shows the proposed model well simulates this real situation of news breakout, confirming the change of rumor-infected rate and probability of rumor disseminators transforming into positive public opinion disseminators, and the time of official statement for truth affecting rumor propagation in varying degrees. To effectively control and dispel rumors, proper guidance of official statement or authority release for truth in the public event is necessary.

探索在多个公共紧急事件中逆转谣言的动态机制，可以支持管理人员控制和引导舆论的传播。在这项研究中，建立了一个两阶段的谣言模型，即易感性，阳性，阴性和恢复状态（SPNR），以分析有关微博紧急情况的谣言传播和谣言逆转。该模型基于流行病模型考虑了官方新闻的滞后性和公众摇摆的心态。为了验证所提出的模型，我们在真实事件“重庆公交车冲入河中”的基础上，比较了模拟数据和谣言逆转的传播曲线。结果表明，该模型很好地模拟了新闻发布的真实情况，证实了谣言感染率的变化以及谣言传播者转变为积极舆论传播者的可能性，正式陈述真相的时间不同程度地影响了谣言的传播。为了有效地控制和消除谣言，在公共活动中必须适当地指导官方声明或授权发布真相。