Abstract

The study considers the methods for evaluating the maximal possible daily storm rainfall (MPR) in the Middle Ural based on a combination of ground, aerological, satellite, and radiolocation data. The methods under consideration represent an alternative to statistical estimation approaches. MPR is evaluated using the total moisture content of cloud systems, described in terms of their stationarity or dynamics over time. The considered methods include evaluating moisture content based on the characteristics of vertical temperature distribution in the troposphere, convection rate, and the height of the upper cloud boundary. The estimates of the probable maximum precipitation, made for the conditions of stable or cloud-dependent moisture content, are comparable with the maximums evaluated by Hershfield statistical method. The probable maximums determined by physical methods are close to the values with exceedance probability of 0.01–0.001%, evaluated with the use of lognormal distribution. The method for evaluating the probable maximum precipitation can be used in engineering practice.

中文翻译：

---

使用卫星和无线电定位观测数据通过物理方法估算可能出现的最大降水：中乌拉尔的案例研究

摘要

该研究考虑了基于地面，气象，卫星和无线电定位数据的组合来评估中乌拉尔州最大可能的每日暴雨（MPR）的方法。所考虑的方法代表了统计估计方法的替代方法。MPR使用云系统的总水分含量进行评估，以其平稳性或随时间变化的动态来描述。所考虑的方法包括根据对流层中垂直温度分布，对流速率和上层云边界高度来评估含水量。在稳定或取决于云的水分含量条件下，可能出现的最大降水量的估计值与通过Hershfield统计方法评估的最大降水量可比。通过对数正态分布进行评估，通过物理方法确定的最大可能值接近概率超过0.01-0.001％的值。用于评估可能的最大降水的方法可以在工程实践中使用。