This study examines the impacts of climate change on future mortality in the Netherlands and the related economic costs. Our methods account for changes in both cold- and heat-related mortality for different age classes, the time dynamics associated with temperature-related mortality, demographic change and the urban heat island effect. Results show that heat and cold impacts on mortality vary considerably between age classes, with older people being more vulnerable to temperature extremes. The sensitivity of mortality to temperature is higher on hot (4.6%/°C) than cold (2.1%/°C) days for the most vulnerable group (≥ 80 years), and extreme temperatures have long time lags on mortality, especially in the cold. A main finding is that climate change is expected to first decrease total net mortality in the Netherlands due to a dominant effect of less cold-related mortality, but this reverses over time under high warming scenarios, unless additional adaptation measures are taken. The economic valuation of these total net mortality changes indicates that climate change will result in net benefits of up to €2.3 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life Year and €14.5 billion using the Value of a Statistical Life approaches in 2050, while this changes over time in net economic costs under high warming scenarios that can reach up to €17.6 billion in 2085. Implementing adaptation policies that reduce the negative impacts of warming on mortality in the heat can turn these net costs into net benefits by achieving a continued dominating effect of reduced mortality in the cold.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化引起的死亡率的经济评估：荷兰与年龄相关的冷热死亡率

本研究考察了气候变化对荷兰未来死亡率的影响以及相关的经济成本。我们的方法考虑了不同年龄段与寒冷和炎热相关的死亡率的变化、与温度相关的死亡率、人口变化和城市热岛效应相关的时间动态。结果表明，热和冷对死亡率的影响在不同年龄段之间差异很大，老年人更容易受到极端温度的影响。对于最脆弱的群体（≥ 80 岁）而言，热天（4.6%/°C）的死亡率对温度的敏感性高于冷天（2.1%/°C），极端温度对死亡率的影响存在较长时间滞后，尤其是在寒冷。一个主要发现是，由于与寒冷相关的死亡率较低的主要影响，预计气候变化将首先降低荷兰的总净死亡率，但在高度变暖的情况下，这种情况会随着时间的推移而逆转，除非采取额外的适应措施。这些总净死亡率变化的经济估值表明，气候变化将导致使用统计生命年价值的净收益高达 23 亿欧元，使用 2050 年的统计生命价值方法将产生高达 145 亿欧元的净收益，而这会发生变化随着时间的推移，在高变暖情景下的净经济成本在 2085 年可达 176 亿欧元。