Abstract The geographic pattern of cropland is an important risk factor for invasion and saturation by crop-specific pathogens and arthropods. Understanding cropland networks supports smart pest sampling and mitigation strategies. We evaluate global networks of cropland connectivity for key vegetatively propagated crops (banana and plantain, cassava, potato, sweet potato, and yam) important for food security in the tropics. For each crop, potential movement between geographic location pairs was evaluated using a gravity model, with associated uncertainty quantification. The highly linked hub and bridge locations in cropland connectivity risk maps are likely priorities for surveillance and management, and for tracing intraregion movement of pathogens and pests. Important locations are identified beyond those locations that simply have high crop density. Cropland connectivity risk maps provide a new risk component for integration with other factors—such as climatic suitability, genetic resistance, and global trade routes—to inform pest risk assessment and mitigation.

中文翻译：

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全球农田连通性：新兴病原体和害虫入侵和饱和的风险因素


摘要 农田地理格局是作物特有病原体和节肢动物入侵和饱和的重要风险因素。了解农田网络支持智能害虫采样和缓解策略。我们评估了对热带粮食安全至关重要的主要无性繁殖作物（香蕉和车前草、木薯、马铃薯、甘薯和山药）的全球农田连通性网络。对于每种作物，使用重力模型以及相关的不确定性量化来评估地理位置对之间的潜在移动。农田连通性风险地图中高度相连的枢纽和桥梁位置可能是监测和管理以及追踪病原体和害虫区域内移动的优先事项。除了那些作物密度高的位置之外，还确定了重要的位置。农田连通性风险地图提供了一个新的风险组成部分，可以与其他因素（例如气候适宜性、遗传抗性和全球贸易路线）相结合，为害虫风险评估和缓解提供信息。