Abstract Cultural heritage is the foundation upon which global and historical values are based on. It connects us to the legacy left by our ancestors and identifies who we are as part of the modern society. Globally and specifically in the northeastern Romania, the landscape where cultural heritage sites were built on is constantly evolving due to mass wasting processes. Among these processes, landslide and gullies can disrupt the gravitational equilibrium directly or around these sites, threatening their very existence and our capacity to pass them on to future generations. Because landsliding and gullying are stochastic processes, the use of spatial statistics has often been employed to map locations at risk. In this work, we make use of advanced spatial Bayesian statistics to model landslide and gully erosion susceptibilities, separately. And, we ultimately combine these two outputs into a unified multi-hazard susceptibility model which we cross with the known cultural heritage sites in a study area close to the city of Iasi, in Romania. Specifically, we implement a Bayesian version of a Generalized Additive Model (GAM) which assumes that the two separate landslide and gully presence/absence distributions to behave according to a Bernoulli probability distribution. Contrary to common practices in the literature, the two susceptibility models both feature fixed and random effects, including covariates acting at a latent level. We do this to also capture the unexplained but spatially coherent distribution of properties not directly included in the model. As for the properties directly expressed as covariates, our GAM features terrain attributes obtained from a LIDAR survey, in addition to land use and soil layers. The two single models outstandingly perform (AUC > 0.9) both during the calibration and validation phases. This modeling procedure ensures that the probability of occurrence of the two mass wasting processes under consideration is well estimated and therefore can be used to reliably plan conservation practices for local cultural heritage sites deemed at risk.

中文翻译：

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文化遗产地多灾害威胁空间建模

摘要 文化遗产是全球价值和历史价值的基础。它将我们与祖先留下的遗产联系起来，并确定我们是现代社会的一部分。在全球范围内，特别是在罗马尼亚东北部，由于大规模浪费过程，文化遗产地所在的景观不断演变。在这些过程中，滑坡和沟壑可以直接或在这些地点周围破坏重力平衡，威胁它们的存在以及我们将它们传递给后代的能力。由于滑坡和沟壑是随机过程，因此经常使用空间统计来绘制有风险的位置图。在这项工作中，我们利用先进的空间贝叶斯统计分别模拟滑坡和沟渠侵蚀的敏感性。和，我们最终将这两个输出组合成一个统一的多灾害易感性模型，我们将其与罗马尼亚雅西市附近研究区的已知文化遗产遗址交叉。具体来说，我们实现了广义加性模型 (GAM) 的贝叶斯版本，该模型假设两个独立的滑坡和沟壑的存在/不存在分布按照伯努利概率分布表现。与文献中的常见做法相反，这两种敏感性模型都具有固定效应和随机效应，包括在潜在水平上起作用的协变量。我们这样做也是为了捕捉未直接包含在模型中的属性的无法解释但在空间上一致的分布。至于直接表示为协变量的属性，我们的 GAM 具有从 LIDAR 调查中获得的地形属性，除了土地利用和土壤层。这两个单一模型在校准和验证阶段都表现出色（AUC > 0.9）。该建模程序可确保对所考虑的两个大规模浪费过程的发生概率进行准确估计，因此可用于为被视为存在风险的当地文化遗产地可靠地规划保护实践。