A simplified model of Covid-19 epidemic dynamics under quarantine conditions and method to estimate quarantine effectiveness are developed. The model is based on the daily growth rate of new infections when total number of infections is significantly smaller than population size of infected country or region. The model is developed on the basis of collected epidemiological data of Covid19 pandemic, which shows that the daily growth rate of new infections has tendency to decrease linearly when the quarantine is imposed in a country (or a region) until it reaches a constant value, which corresponds to the effectiveness of quarantine measures taken in the country. The daily growth rate of new infections can be used as criteria to estimate quarantine effectiveness.

开发了隔离条件下 Covid-19 流行动态的简化模型以及估计隔离效果的方法。该模型基于当感染总数明显小于受感染国家或地区的人口规模时新增感染的每日增长率。该模型是在收集的Covid19大流行病学数据的基础上建立的，该数据表明，当一个国家（或地区）实施隔离时，新增感染病例的日增长率呈线性下降趋势，直至达到恒定值，这与该国采取的检疫措施的有效性相对应。新增感染病例的日增长率可以作为评估隔离效果的标准。