A new method is proposed for generating projections for sparse populations by locality, age cohort and gender. An adaptation of the cohort replacement method, the approach uses a Tobit model with varying censoring limits to model population changes by cohort. As an applied example, projections are generated for 2016 Indigenous populations in communities in regional and remote Australia, and then compared to actual 2016 Census population counts. We argue the approach has considerable potential, with the model performing well in out-of-sample projection while offering projections at a much finer-grained level of disaggregation than currently available to planners and policy-makers.

提出了一种新方法，用于按地点，年龄组和性别生成稀疏人口的预测。作为队列替换方法的一种改进，该方法使用具有不同审查限制的Tobit模型来按队列建模人口变化。作为一个应用示例，将为澳大利亚区域和偏远地区的社区中的2016年土著人口生成预测，然后将其与2016年人口普查的实际人口计数进行比较。我们认为这种方法具有很大的潜力，因为该模型在样本外预测中表现良好，同时以比当前计划者和决策者更细粒度的分类级别提供预测。