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Predicting the invasion range for a highly polyphagous and widespread forest herbivore
NeoBiota ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-28 , DOI: 10.3897/neobiota.59.53550
Laura M. Blackburn , Joseph S. Elkinton , Nathan P. Havill , Hannah J. Broadley , Jeremy C. Andersen , Andrew M. Liebhold

Here we compare the environmental niche of a highly polyphagous forest Lepidoptera species, the winter moth (Operophtera brumata), in its native and invaded range. During the last 90 years, this European tree folivore has invaded North America in at least three regions and exhibited eruptive population behavior in both its native and invaded range. Despite its importance as both a forest and agricultural pest, neither the potential extent of this species’ invaded range nor the geographic source of invading populations from its native range are known. Here we fit a climatic niche model, based on the MaxEnt algorithm, to historical records of winter moth occurrence in its native range and compare predictions of suitable distributions to records from the invaded range. We modeled this distribution using three spatial bins to overcome sampling bias for data obtained from public databases and averaged the multi-continental suitable habitat prediction. Results indicate that this species is distributed across a wide range of climates in its native range but occupies a narrower range in its invaded habitat. Furthermore, the lack of a close fit between climatic conditions in parts of its invaded range and its known native range suggests the possibility that this species has adapted to new climatic conditions during the invasion process. These models can be used to predict suitable habitats for winter moth invasions worldwide and to gain insight into possible origins of North American populations.

中文翻译:

预测高度食虫和广泛的森林食草动物的入侵范围

在这里,我们比较了本地和入侵范围内的高度多食性森林鳞翅目物种冬蛾(Operophtera brumata)的环境生态位。在过去的90年中,这种欧洲树木的叶子至少在三个地区入侵了北美,并且在其本土和入侵范围内均表现出爆发性的种群行为。尽管作为森林和农业害虫都具有重要意义,但既不知道该物种入侵范围的潜在范围,也不知道其本地范围的入侵种群的地理来源。在这里,我们基于MaxEnt算法,将气候生态位模型拟合到其本机范围内冬季蛾发生的历史记录,并将适当分布的预测与入侵范围内的记录进行比较。我们使用三个空间分箱对这种分布进行建模,以克服从公共数据库获得的数据的抽样偏差,并对多大陆合适的生境预测进行平均。结果表明,该物种在其本土范围内分布于广泛的气候中,但在其入侵的栖息地中所占的范围较小。此外,在其入侵范围的一部分气候条件与其已知的自然范围之间缺乏紧密契合,这表明该物种在入侵过程中已适应新的气候条件。这些模型可用于预测全世界冬蛾入侵的合适栖息地,并深入了解北美种群的起源。结果表明,该物种在其本土范围内分布于广泛的气候中,但在其入侵的栖息地中所占的范围较小。此外,在其入侵范围的一部分气候条件与其已知的自然范围之间缺乏紧密的适应性,这表明该物种有可能在入侵过程中适应新的气候条件。这些模型可用于预测全世界冬蛾入侵的合适栖息地,并深入了解北美种群的起源。结果表明,该物种在其本土范围内分布于广泛的气候中,但在其入侵的栖息地中所占的范围较小。此外,在其入侵范围的一部分气候条件与其已知的自然范围之间缺乏紧密的适应性,这表明该物种有可能在入侵过程中适应新的气候条件。这些模型可用于预测全世界冬蛾入侵的合适栖息地,并深入了解北美种群的起源。在其入侵范围的一部分气候条件与其已知的自然范围之间缺乏紧密契合,这表明该物种在入侵过程中已适应新的气候条件的可能性。这些模型可用于预测全世界冬蛾入侵的合适栖息地,并深入了解北美种群的起源。在其入侵范围的一部分气候条件与其已知的自然范围之间缺乏紧密契合,这表明该物种在入侵过程中已适应新的气候条件的可能性。这些模型可用于预测全世界冬蛾入侵的合适栖息地,并深入了解北美种群的起源。
更新日期:2020-07-28
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