Bayesian analysis of radiocarbon (14C) dates in North American archaeology is increasing, especially among archaeologists working in deeper time. However, historical archaeologists have been slow to embrace these new techniques, and there have been only a few examples of the incorporation of calendar dates as informative priors in Bayesian models in such work in the United States. To illustrate the value of Bayesian approaches to sites with both substantial earlier Native American occupations as well as a historic era European presence, we present the results of our Bayesian analysis of 14C dates from the earlier Guale village and the Mission period contexts from the Sapelo Shell Ring Complex (9MC23) in southern Georgia. Jefferies and Moore have explored the Spanish Mission period deposits at this site to better understand the Native American interactions with the Spanish during the 16th and 17th centuries along the Georgia Coast. Given the results of our Bayesian modeling, we can say with some degree of confidence that the deposits thus far excavated and sampled contain important information dating to the 17th-century mission on Sapelo Island. In addition, our modeling of new dates suggests the range of the pre-Mission era Guale village. Based on these new dates, we can now say with some degree of certainty which of the deposits sampled likely contain information that dates to one of the critical periods of Mission period research, the AD 1660–1684 period that ushered in the close of mission efforts on the Georgia Coast.

中文翻译：

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通过贝叶斯分析探索瓜莱村和西班牙使团职业在 SAPELO 壳环综合体

放射性碳的贝叶斯分析 (14C）北美考古学的日期正在增加，尤其是在更深层次工作的考古学家中。然而，历史考古学家对这些新技术的接受速度很慢，在美国的此类工作中，只有少数几个例子将日历日期作为贝叶斯模型中的信息先验纳入。为了说明贝叶斯方法对具有大量早期美洲原住民占领以及历史悠久的欧洲存在的地点的价值，我们展示了贝叶斯分析的结果14C 可以追溯到较早的 Guale 村和来自佐治亚州南部的 Sapelo Shell Ring Complex (9MC23) 的使命时期背景。Jefferies 和 Moore 在该地点探索了西班牙传教时期的沉积物，以更好地了解 16 世纪和 17 世纪沿乔治亚海岸的美洲原住民与西班牙人的互动。鉴于我们的贝叶斯模型的结果，我们可以肯定地说，迄今为止挖掘和采样的矿床包含可追溯到 17 世纪萨佩洛岛任务的重要信息。此外，我们对新日期的建模表明了前使命时代 Guale 村的范围。根据这些新的日期，我们现在可以在一定程度上确定，哪些矿床样本​​可能包含可追溯到任务期研究的关键时期之一的信息，